The Thief’s Almanac
/confluence117
brain dump - mainly on markets and crypto
Just wanna give the other half of the pic. There are unique challenges and snakes in crypto.
- smart contract exploits
- losing private keys
- stablecoin depeg
- exchange blowup
- fundamental analysis traps
- ease of access to leverage
These are nothingburgers with the right framework. But can see why the average joe stays away. And please for the love of god stay the fuck away.
- smart contract exploits
- losing private keys
- stablecoin depeg
- exchange blowup
- fundamental analysis traps
- ease of access to leverage
These are nothingburgers with the right framework. But can see why the average joe stays away. And please for the love of god stay the fuck away.
After speaking to “normies”, I realised one of the biggest misconceptions is that there is no edge in trading (especially crypto) if you don’t have a $500k system coded in C or something.
Trading is at least 50%, imo a lot >50%, psychological. Some people have traits that predisposes as better (or worse) traders. Knowing how to take a loss is imo the *number one* success trade. With a bit of experience, these people can know when not cut losses too quickly. But you can almost never teach people in the inverse sense.
Trading is at least 50%, imo a lot >50%, psychological. Some people have traits that predisposes as better (or worse) traders. Knowing how to take a loss is imo the *number one* success trade. With a bit of experience, these people can know when not cut losses too quickly. But you can almost never teach people in the inverse sense.
If you have a little (but non-zero) experience of trading, The Big Short is probably the most costly (to PnL) movie ever made.
Will not elaborate.
Will not elaborate.
The *only* thing I did correctly was sawing off my leg so I could crawl out of the dungeon.
But I think it would have been hell of an easier time if I had just sawn off my toe at the very beginning.
But I think it would have been hell of an easier time if I had just sawn off my toe at the very beginning.
another mistake was not sticking to my playbook: which was to close my books after 100k. held on for far, far, far too long thinking since it’s a bull I should push it with a bigger size. nothing wrong inherently with this but psychologically I was not prepared to trade with that size.
lastly, I was too drawn to an arbitrary round number, thinking I’ll TP at X. ah, that fur coat killed me like the bucket shop traders from the last century.
lastly, I was too drawn to an arbitrary round number, thinking I’ll TP at X. ah, that fur coat killed me like the bucket shop traders from the last century.
well took a beating lmeow and if I didn’t have a good entry price I would *certainly* have been destroyed with the leverage I was using
Do I regret using the leverage? No.
The mistake was blinding buying the dip (on the same leverage).
Do I regret using the leverage? No.
The mistake was blinding buying the dip (on the same leverage).
Lmfao at the S&P pre market
for every one way to make it in crypto, there are like 15 ways not to
directionally correct but not correct enough, think i lost a house last night
am actually quite confused, price % move looks absolutely shit but the total amount of liquidations isn't that high. why?
would consider a daily close above 3500 bullish, let's go
fuck i am gonna get an earful from the delta neutral yappers am i not
I’ve never had so much uPnL swing within a day. I’m getting rattled here ngl.
Just happened to stumble upon the full clip of "bet more" guy. Timely reminder of what he said before the infamous "bet more" quote. Paraphrasing: when people win, they tend to bet less; let your winners ride, don't be afraid to bet more when you're winning.
6 digit PnL swings were not on my 2024 bingo card.
find your edge
ritardio
ritardio
One big draw of crypto is everyone is within everyone’s reach on social media (subject to taking your account private & inactivity, of cos). If you reach out to a big account, there’s a higher chance you’ll get a reply, relative to most other industries.
Founders who are not active on social media are leaving easy money on the table imo. Unfortunately you can’t teach someone to be funny. Fortunately you can hire @thief as your ghost writer :-)
Founders who are not active on social media are leaving easy money on the table imo. Unfortunately you can’t teach someone to be funny. Fortunately you can hire @thief as your ghost writer :-)
How many more cycles does CT need to go through before realising their sentiments do not move the market.
Want to gift a good friend’s newborn daughter some $ in the form of something like a @useburner. But it uses USDC II. Clearly I’m not questioning its solvency etc etc but I wonder if she can still use that $ when she turns 18 (firm/bridge still around?)
Another question: is USDC or USDT any better in this regard?
Another question: is USDC or USDT any better in this regard?
As the bull continues I’m rebalancing more ETH etc into USDC to yield farm, theoretically letting me sleep better at night but also having exploit/depeg thoughts at night.
This industry is quite something innit.
This industry is quite something innit.
A few more liquidations then it’s liquidations only.