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super fact!
The Week On-Chain 40, 2024
For the first time since the ATH, Bitcoin has established a new technical higher high, as price bounced into the $66k region. Alongside this, there is a multitude of critical on-chain metrics that have also set higher highs, making this an interesting moment in time.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoinβs cyclical price performance shows a striking similarity across the last three cycles, with the index at nearly the same position.
- Long-term Holders holding BTC in loss have risen, as coins bought near the $73k ATH pass the 155-day mark.
- However, the unrealized loss for these investors is minimal, indicating little financial pressure on portfolios.
- Short-Term Holder profitability has improved in the recent rally, bringing relief to recent buyers.
- US ETF investorsβ conviction remains strong, with only minor sell-side pressure despite being below their average inflow cost.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
For the first time since the ATH, Bitcoin has established a new technical higher high, as price bounced into the $66k region. Alongside this, there is a multitude of critical on-chain metrics that have also set higher highs, making this an interesting moment in time.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoinβs cyclical price performance shows a striking similarity across the last three cycles, with the index at nearly the same position.
- Long-term Holders holding BTC in loss have risen, as coins bought near the $73k ATH pass the 155-day mark.
- However, the unrealized loss for these investors is minimal, indicating little financial pressure on portfolios.
- Short-Term Holder profitability has improved in the recent rally, bringing relief to recent buyers.
- US ETF investorsβ conviction remains strong, with only minor sell-side pressure despite being below their average inflow cost.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
A weekly show specific to Bitcoin data, where professional analysts & quants curate & interpret the most reliable data from various lenses?
This is severely lacking & much needed.
Well, now we have it!
PlanC & I recorded the first episode. Coming tomorrow on YT & X.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMVzRAq7Y1k
Premiered in less than 2 hours on YT. Set your notifications on YT.
This is severely lacking & much needed.
Well, now we have it!
PlanC & I recorded the first episode. Coming tomorrow on YT & X.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMVzRAq7Y1k
Premiered in less than 2 hours on YT. Set your notifications on YT.
happy claim day!
wellcome back CZ β€οΈ
Optimal Bitcoin Allocation: Maximizing Returns with Controlled Risk
How much of your portfolio should you allocate to Bitcoin to maximize your returns without taking on too much risk?
Using the Kelly criterion, Stephen Perrenod, Ph.D., calculates the optimal Bitcoin allocation to be at least 75%.
The Kelly formula helps you determine the optimal size of an investment, balancing the potential for growth with the risk of losing your capital.
By calculating the proportion of your portfolio to invest based on the probability of success and expected returns, the Kelly Criterion allows you to maximize long-term growth while avoiding the trap of overexposure to a single source of risk.
https://youtu.be/Q8lMkyWidDw?si=oJp5jYOGjKvgpgQB
How much of your portfolio should you allocate to Bitcoin to maximize your returns without taking on too much risk?
Using the Kelly criterion, Stephen Perrenod, Ph.D., calculates the optimal Bitcoin allocation to be at least 75%.
The Kelly formula helps you determine the optimal size of an investment, balancing the potential for growth with the risk of losing your capital.
By calculating the proportion of your portfolio to invest based on the probability of success and expected returns, the Kelly Criterion allows you to maximize long-term growth while avoiding the trap of overexposure to a single source of risk.
https://youtu.be/Q8lMkyWidDw?si=oJp5jYOGjKvgpgQB
Bitcoin Scale-Invariance
Bitcoin grows 6x with every 40% growth in its age.
It is now 15 years old. The next 40% growth will be in 2030 (21 years old) and $360K.
Age is what matters, not calendar year!
Bitcoin grows 6x with every 40% growth in its age.
It is now 15 years old. The next 40% growth will be in 2030 (21 years old) and $360K.
Age is what matters, not calendar year!
bad news for today!
Bitcoin Price follows an interest pattern
What really matters for Bitcoin's price appreciation is its age, not pure calendar time!
The rate of return is proportional to age.
Here I show that Bitcoin goes 15x higher with every 85% increase in age.
After all, Bitcoin's growth is not that volatile.
https://x.com/sina_21st/status/1831492454748713342
What really matters for Bitcoin's price appreciation is its age, not pure calendar time!
The rate of return is proportional to age.
Here I show that Bitcoin goes 15x higher with every 85% increase in age.
After all, Bitcoin's growth is not that volatile.
https://x.com/sina_21st/status/1831492454748713342
$BTC/USDT ANALYSIS
Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a descending broadening wedge pattern, a technical structure that often precedes significant price movement. The 100-day moving average is acting as a crucial resistance barrier, rejecting BTC's attempts to break higher.
Market sentiment remains cautious as traders await a clear breakout or breakdown from this pattern to confirm the next directional move. Volume has been relatively low, indicating indecision among participants.
A confirmed breakout above the 100MA could signal a bullish reversal, while a breakdown might lead to further downside.
Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a descending broadening wedge pattern, a technical structure that often precedes significant price movement. The 100-day moving average is acting as a crucial resistance barrier, rejecting BTC's attempts to break higher.
Market sentiment remains cautious as traders await a clear breakout or breakdown from this pattern to confirm the next directional move. Volume has been relatively low, indicating indecision among participants.
A confirmed breakout above the 100MA could signal a bullish reversal, while a breakdown might lead to further downside.
The situation these days
The LTH Sell-Side Risk ratio remains lower than during previous ATH breaks, indicating that the LTH cohort is taking smaller profits compared to past cycles. This suggests they may be waiting for higher prices before increasing their selling pressure.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain belowπ
https://glassno.de/4fGn2Hk
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain belowπ
https://glassno.de/4fGn2Hk
The Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) indicates a market shift back to accumulation, with the ATS reaching its maximum value of 1.0, signaling significant accumulation over the past month.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below π
https://glassno.de/4fGn2Hk
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below π
https://glassno.de/4fGn2Hk
Today's situation ππ₯²
The real reason #BTC has been changing
Me managing my $200 in crypto
(it was $420 last week) ππ₯²
(it was $420 last week) ππ₯²
just fun π
ready for new job π₯²π
a huge one!
when lambo ?? π
c'mon do something π₯²