Economics

/economics1950

A place to talk about finance and the economy

'By the end of 2026, bankrupt governments will be "too big to fail". But who will bail them out?'

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-14166069/Is-global-property-crash-coming-2027-House-price-prophet-thinks-so.html
Something to watch on the market is that the 10-year note yield is going up despite the fact that JPow cut interest rates. This is likely showing that the market is expecting inflation to be persistent. That will affect mortgage rates and everything in between
As you're solving your optimization for this weekend, clearly the utility-maximizing strategy is to enter the December Quora Knowledge Contest in Economics: https://contests.quora.com/Now-Open-December-s-Knowledge-Contest-in-Economics
posting to /economics in case anyone has a take on this cc @giu @dwr.eth @julia

ps who else on farcaster is interested in future of energy?
The S&P 500 falls sharply after the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points, but raises inflation forecast!
There's a 97% chance the Fed cuts rates 25 bps today.
There's a 98% chance Jerome Powell starts today's FOMC press conference with "Good Afternoon".

Last time he skipped it, the DOW plunged 800 points.

What could go wrong?
Mapped: GDP per Capita in the Middle East by Country
Japan is experiencing higher wage inflation. That puts pressure on the BOJ to raise interest rates. That can impact the global economy given the size of the carry trade
There are a lot of cynical reasons that could explain the pop on ServiceTitan’s IPO, but the positive spin could be that the market is ready to invest in tech IPOs again. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/servicetitan-starts-trading-on-nasdaq-after-ipo.html
Annual income needed to buy a house over last 125 years!
Ranked: 2023’s Shrinking Economies

In fact, 29 economies are projected to shrink from their 2022 sizes, leading to nearly $500 billion in lost output.
Stellar insight into a legendary trade: Planet Money Pod

soros drunkenmiller, besant and co levered 3x the size of the fund against the pound

“When the timing is right, go for the the jugular”

15bn on the line, made off with £1bn+ profit, super limited downside risk
"No, the bank cannot explain why SARs triggered a debanking, because disclosing the existence of a SAR is illegal. 12 CFR 21.11(k) Yes, it is the law in the United States that a private non-court, in possession of a memo written by a non-intelligence analyst, cannot describe the nature of the non-accusation the memo makes. Nor can it confirm or deny the existence of the memo. This is not a James Bond film. This is not a farce about the security state. This is not a right-wing conspiracy. This is very much the law."

https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/debanking-and-debunking/
France has been lagging behind in the stock market compared to other developed nations like the US or Germanu
Random reminder that ARPA money is still flowing and hasn’t been fully spent.

Yet.

Obligations need to be set by the end of the year and spending needs to be finished by the end of 2026

https://newbedfordlight.org/city-faces-dec-31-deadline-for-final-arpa-spending/