Economics
/economics2184
A place to talk about finance and the economy
Snippet from zero hedge twitter > not sure where they got the graphic, if it’s theirs or not…
Call me skeptical that Doge and tariffs are going to fix this balance... for the month of February.
Call me skeptical that Doge and tariffs are going to fix this balance... for the month of February.
Inflation rate hits 2.8% YoY. That’s less than expected. Given the numbers, the market is expecting to cut 3 times this year
[1/3] Reports and Market Summary.
•Core CPI (ex. food & energy): +0.2% (vs. expected +0.3%)
•Shelter Costs: +0.3%, making up half of the CPI gain but rising at a slower pace than in recent years.
Category-Specific Trends:
•Rising Costs: Medical care, used vehicles, recreation, apparel.
•Declining Costs: Airline fares, new vehicles.
•Travel Demand: Weakness in airfares aligns with recent airline warnings about lower demand.
•Food Inflation: Slowed to 0.2% (from 0.4% in January).
•Egg Prices: +10.4% MoM, +58.8% YoY—a sharp surge.
•Core CPI (ex. food & energy): +0.2% (vs. expected +0.3%)
•Shelter Costs: +0.3%, making up half of the CPI gain but rising at a slower pace than in recent years.
Category-Specific Trends:
•Rising Costs: Medical care, used vehicles, recreation, apparel.
•Declining Costs: Airline fares, new vehicles.
•Travel Demand: Weakness in airfares aligns with recent airline warnings about lower demand.
•Food Inflation: Slowed to 0.2% (from 0.4% in January).
•Egg Prices: +10.4% MoM, +58.8% YoY—a sharp surge.
Tariffs create a no-win situation by simultaneously slowing growth AND increasing prices. Put simply, the Fed cannot counter these effects without either worsening inflation or further dampening economic growth.
This leaves us facing a troubling scenario:
1. If the Fed reduces its balance sheet by letting bonds mature without replacement or selling Treasuries/securities, this tightens financial conditions when the economy is already vulnerable.
2. If the Fed raises the federal funds rate, borrowing costs increase across the board, potentially crushing growth when the economy is already decelerating.
Regardless of which path is chosen, increased market volatility seems inevitable. Crypto may actually become relatively more stable, and with inflation, crypto prices rise accordingly..
This leaves us facing a troubling scenario:
1. If the Fed reduces its balance sheet by letting bonds mature without replacement or selling Treasuries/securities, this tightens financial conditions when the economy is already vulnerable.
2. If the Fed raises the federal funds rate, borrowing costs increase across the board, potentially crushing growth when the economy is already decelerating.
Regardless of which path is chosen, increased market volatility seems inevitable. Crypto may actually become relatively more stable, and with inflation, crypto prices rise accordingly..
People whine about corporatism like it’s new. It’s been cycling in and out since the Catholic Church backed medieval guilds in the eleventh century.
The trick isn’t fighting it—it’s riding the waves.
The trick isn’t fighting it—it’s riding the waves.
Crypto will make the return of corporatism far more financially inclusive than in previous iterations.
The total number of employees working on manufacturing has been going down since 2000. Let's see what happens to this trend in the next few years...
Major averages like S&P 500 and Dow Jones are finally hitting correction territory down 8% (lol). Reminder to not catch the knife here
- tariffs seem to be ramping up, not down with Canada and Mexico
- unemployment ramping with DOGE cuts to gov't jobs
- drop in consumer spending
- tariffs seem to be ramping up, not down with Canada and Mexico
- unemployment ramping with DOGE cuts to gov't jobs
- drop in consumer spending
The US corporate leaders are growing disillusioned with Trump's economic policies
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-meets-corporate-america-economic-fears-nip-stocks-2025-03-11/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-meets-corporate-america-economic-fears-nip-stocks-2025-03-11/
📈 Cryptocurrency Market Cap Hits Record 3.0% of Global GDP in 2024
The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached a historic milestone in 2024, rising to 3.0% of global GDP—nearly doubling from 1.6% in 2023.
https://www.voronoiapp.com/markets/-Cryptocurrency-Market-Cap-Hits-Record-30-of-Global-GDP-in-2024-3820
The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached a historic milestone in 2024, rising to 3.0% of global GDP—nearly doubling from 1.6% in 2023.
https://www.voronoiapp.com/markets/-Cryptocurrency-Market-Cap-Hits-Record-30-of-Global-GDP-in-2024-3820
Trump seems to be speedrunning the nineteen months of turbulence that led up to the Reaganomic boom of the eighties.
If you’re looking for good macro follows on twitter the replies here have some great folk > https://x.com/hosseeb/status/1899233715479560618?s=46&t=TVy9rDl3UkuxmVj4e18bOA
There is around 7T of debt that the U.S. needs to refinance. The government would benefit massively if rates were lower
forced recession to force QE is pretty funny imho
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luc
@luc·16:29 08/03/2025
Weekend read from Arthur Hayes.
Interesting points around how to read the Trump erratic moves and how it impacts Bitcoin (and thus crypto at large)
The salient points are his assumptions that:
1) Trump is a real-estate guy, and thus likely to resort to debt financing
2) to make it possible he needs to a) reduce current debt level (secured with his appointment of Bessent at the treasury) and b) get Powell to cut rates
3) he thinks DOGE is trumps way to induce a recession or the fear of one to induce rate cuts
4) his back of the envelope maths expects money printing at 70-80% of COVID's level
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/kiss-of-death-916ae30fedc5
Interesting points around how to read the Trump erratic moves and how it impacts Bitcoin (and thus crypto at large)
The salient points are his assumptions that:
1) Trump is a real-estate guy, and thus likely to resort to debt financing
2) to make it possible he needs to a) reduce current debt level (secured with his appointment of Bessent at the treasury) and b) get Powell to cut rates
3) he thinks DOGE is trumps way to induce a recession or the fear of one to induce rate cuts
4) his back of the envelope maths expects money printing at 70-80% of COVID's level
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/kiss-of-death-916ae30fedc5
The Worst Performing Stocks in the S&P 500
https://www.voronoiapp.com/markets/The-Worst-Performing-Stocks-in-the-SP-500--4281
https://www.voronoiapp.com/markets/The-Worst-Performing-Stocks-in-the-SP-500--4281
Pop quiz…
Do you know what a Detox period is?
Also interesting to hear a republican admin talking about spending inequality.
https://x.com/geiger_capital/status/1897995482300891580?s=46&t=TVy9rDl3UkuxmVj4e18bOA
Do you know what a Detox period is?
Also interesting to hear a republican admin talking about spending inequality.
https://x.com/geiger_capital/status/1897995482300891580?s=46&t=TVy9rDl3UkuxmVj4e18bOA
Gas is also very cheap rn?
I’d be long LNG for data centers & those with distribution to large land with high infra fiber
I’d be long LNG for data centers & those with distribution to large land with high infra fiber
1015455
Alexander C. Kaufman
@kaufman·15:58 07/03/2025
Between surging global energy demands and Trump coming back to office promising a gas export boom, 2025 should be a gangbusters year for Venture Global, the American LNG producer that went public.
But it's been a bad month -- and a particularly rough week -- for the company amid declining sales, an overpriced stock and anxiety about a legal dispute with Shell and BP.
But it's been a bad month -- and a particularly rough week -- for the company amid declining sales, an overpriced stock and anxiety about a legal dispute with Shell and BP.
1/3) Report Analysis.
1. Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual: 151k (lower than the consensus of 159k but higher than the previous 125k). Indicates weaker-than-expected job growth.
2. Unemployment Rate: Actual: 4.1% (higher than the consensus of 4.0% and the previous 4.0%). A rising unemployment rate suggests a slight softening in the labor market.
3. Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): Actual: 0.3% (in line with consensus but lower than the previous 0.4%). Suggests wage growth is slowing slightly.
1. Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual: 151k (lower than the consensus of 159k but higher than the previous 125k). Indicates weaker-than-expected job growth.
2. Unemployment Rate: Actual: 4.1% (higher than the consensus of 4.0% and the previous 4.0%). A rising unemployment rate suggests a slight softening in the labor market.
3. Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): Actual: 0.3% (in line with consensus but lower than the previous 0.4%). Suggests wage growth is slowing slightly.
419741
Abbas🎩👾
@abbass.eth·12:38 07/03/2025
Big financial market day.
* Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
* Unemployment Rate (Feb)
* Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb)
* Federal Monetary Policy Report
* Fed Chair Powell speaks
* U.S. President Trump speaks
*Cracks fingers*. High-volatility market; trade safely; don't get liquidated.
* Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
* Unemployment Rate (Feb)
* Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb)
* Federal Monetary Policy Report
* Fed Chair Powell speaks
* U.S. President Trump speaks
*Cracks fingers*. High-volatility market; trade safely; don't get liquidated.
Big financial market day.
* Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
* Unemployment Rate (Feb)
* Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb)
* Federal Monetary Policy Report
* Fed Chair Powell speaks
* U.S. President Trump speaks
*Cracks fingers*. High-volatility market; trade safely; don't get liquidated.
* Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
* Unemployment Rate (Feb)
* Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb)
* Federal Monetary Policy Report
* Fed Chair Powell speaks
* U.S. President Trump speaks
*Cracks fingers*. High-volatility market; trade safely; don't get liquidated.
interesting global trend in government spending as % of GDP
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/exp@FPP/IND/CHN/USA/JPN/GBR/ESP/SWE/ITA/FRA/
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/exp@FPP/IND/CHN/USA/JPN/GBR/ESP/SWE/ITA/FRA/
Now that the Orange One is in we will get REAL data. Make bankruptcies delinquencies and unemployment great again.
The data is about to get worse. NFP tomorrow
The data is about to get worse. NFP tomorrow
related: https://youtu.be/nGeUbaS1kgI?si=QUnqfR_T_FqHRStd
will be very interesting to see how consumer demand shifts from SUV culture to affordable sedan life (or homeless)
will be very interesting to see how consumer demand shifts from SUV culture to affordable sedan life (or homeless)
1015644
Lee Fang
@leefang·16:57 06/03/2025
New data out today, the car loan bubble might be on the verge of popping as the overall economy goes south
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U.S. Macro Data Released
•Initial Jobless Claims: Dropped to 221K (Forecast: 233K, Previous: 242K), reversing most of the prior week's 22K increase.
•Labor Costs (Revised): Rose 2.2% (Forecast: 3%, Previous: 3%).
•Continuing Jobless Claims: Increased slightly, holding around 1.5% of insured employment (NSA basis).
•Initial Jobless Claims: Dropped to 221K (Forecast: 233K, Previous: 242K), reversing most of the prior week's 22K increase.
•Labor Costs (Revised): Rose 2.2% (Forecast: 3%, Previous: 3%).
•Continuing Jobless Claims: Increased slightly, holding around 1.5% of insured employment (NSA basis).
243139
Blockhead
@ohyoublockhead·01:01 06/03/2025
Dana White would host a UFC event in Hell if the check cleared.
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Nasdaq is ripping, bottom is in ❗
Let the bull run begin
Let the bull run begin
375536
J Finn 🎩
@jdotfinn·19:54 04/03/2025
this context makes me think we are really about to turn bullish and rip 📈
https://x.com/JLinWins/status/1896966438176620570
https://x.com/JLinWins/status/1896966438176620570
The secret 401k liquidity is taking a loan
> nominal fees
> interest paid to yourself
> effectively leverage long the market (borrow during mania)
> no tax burden
> nominal fees
> interest paid to yourself
> effectively leverage long the market (borrow during mania)
> no tax burden
1015455
Alexander C. Kaufman
@kaufman·17:37 05/03/2025
Tragic in that you pay a lot in taxes on this withdrawals — and lose even more in future gains.
Why do the prices go down so quickly?
https://x.com/splitcapital/status/1895431031463047379?s=46&t=LUwp6CEG8bj71wefilcCmQ
https://x.com/splitcapital/status/1895431031463047379?s=46&t=LUwp6CEG8bj71wefilcCmQ
this context makes me think we are really about to turn bullish and rip 📈
https://x.com/JLinWins/status/1896966438176620570
https://x.com/JLinWins/status/1896966438176620570
I think Trumpists are setting the stage for the 26 NAFTA negotiations, while signalling the US out of the WTO no-tariff world it itself created in the 90s. Essentially an anti-Clinton backlash.
https://x.com/matthiasellis/status/1896728119131942931?t=BK9pVkRDAwiZAiTgIJPRnQ&s=19
https://x.com/matthiasellis/status/1896728119131942931?t=BK9pVkRDAwiZAiTgIJPRnQ&s=19
190576
Catabolismo
@catabolismo·18:01 04/03/2025
What's the Occam's Razor option here:
1) The US president is fully on board with a century-old economic theory that has been long discredited
2) The US president is a foreign asset and is trying to destroy the Empire from within
https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1896663112360800429?t=nbBUiBKkYYb_yUNHBdE4rg&s=19
1) The US president is fully on board with a century-old economic theory that has been long discredited
2) The US president is a foreign asset and is trying to destroy the Empire from within
https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1896663112360800429?t=nbBUiBKkYYb_yUNHBdE4rg&s=19
x.com
Luxemburg has one of the highest poverty rate in the EU due to NIMBYism
https://youtu.be/FwCKBsbwR68?si=L5qH5Dt36nv0bsvH
https://youtu.be/FwCKBsbwR68?si=L5qH5Dt36nv0bsvH
The U.S. has been facing a future of persistent agricultural trade deficits. Let’s see if this trend can be reverted
The stock market sank during the first nineteen months under Reagan—then his supply-side economics sparked one of history’s biggest bull runs.
Trump’s Reaganomics could do the same, but will today’s faster, more volatile markets shorten the cycle?
Trump’s Reaganomics could do the same, but will today’s faster, more volatile markets shorten the cycle?
idk what’s going on these days, but possible pump catalyst to close out the week 🤷♂️
https://x.com/mikealfred/status/1896720322390552659
https://x.com/mikealfred/status/1896720322390552659
People wonder - why does this have value?
Because there’s someone willing to buy or sell. They’re called market makers.
Most of them are humans who can increase the volatility of a market on a whim.
Because there’s someone willing to buy or sell. They’re called market makers.
Most of them are humans who can increase the volatility of a market on a whim.
surely we would rather wreck our own economy and make it so no one can afford things than to let immigrants have jobs that nobody else wants anyway
https://www.ft.com/content/24959793-7828-4ddc-9379-376d3590c718
https://www.ft.com/content/24959793-7828-4ddc-9379-376d3590c718
Nvidia Delivered Strong Q4 Earnings, But the Stock is Down
https://www.voronoiapp.com/markets/Nvidia-Delivered-Strong-Q4-Earnings-But-the-Stock-is-Down-4204
https://www.voronoiapp.com/markets/Nvidia-Delivered-Strong-Q4-Earnings-But-the-Stock-is-Down-4204
Expensive school projects in the Commonwealth… Lexington MA (wealthy suburb of Boston) is eyeing a 600M+ project.
Our schools are heavily tied to property taxes in Mass, and the spectrum of quality of education reflects this.
In some of the metro west suburbs; families will pay high property taxes in lieu of sending kids to prep schools.
https://www.lhsproject.lexingtonma.org/projectfaqs#:~:text=The%20estimated%20project%20cost%20of,Administration%20Offices%20inside%20the%20building.
Our schools are heavily tied to property taxes in Mass, and the spectrum of quality of education reflects this.
In some of the metro west suburbs; families will pay high property taxes in lieu of sending kids to prep schools.
https://www.lhsproject.lexingtonma.org/projectfaqs#:~:text=The%20estimated%20project%20cost%20of,Administration%20Offices%20inside%20the%20building.
stripe the digital stagecoach of the internet economy
stripe is to the internet what wells fargo was to the frontier economy—both built the foundational infrastructure that enabled commerce to scale.
wells fargo moved money across the west; stripe moves money across the web.
below are some takeaways:
📌 political: stripe scales globally while navigating complex financial regulations. compliance = moat.
📌 economic: fraud down 80%. enterprise adoption up. stripe boosts gdp by optimizing payment flows. the company generated $1.4 trillion in total payment volume in 2024, up 38% from 2023. that accounts for approximately 1.27% of global gdp in 2024. (global gdp in 2024 was $110 trillion us dollars)
📌 social: more financial access for small businesses and the growth of bridge, the aquired stablecoin company and ai automated payments.
🚀 payments aren’t just transactions. they're infrastructure to a global economy.
/keepgoing
report linked below
stripe is to the internet what wells fargo was to the frontier economy—both built the foundational infrastructure that enabled commerce to scale.
wells fargo moved money across the west; stripe moves money across the web.
below are some takeaways:
📌 political: stripe scales globally while navigating complex financial regulations. compliance = moat.
📌 economic: fraud down 80%. enterprise adoption up. stripe boosts gdp by optimizing payment flows. the company generated $1.4 trillion in total payment volume in 2024, up 38% from 2023. that accounts for approximately 1.27% of global gdp in 2024. (global gdp in 2024 was $110 trillion us dollars)
📌 social: more financial access for small businesses and the growth of bridge, the aquired stablecoin company and ai automated payments.
🚀 payments aren’t just transactions. they're infrastructure to a global economy.
/keepgoing
report linked below
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Giuliano Giacaglia
@giu·18:50 27/02/2025
Stablecoin transaction volumes more than doubled between Q4 2023 and Q4 2024, and the number of monthly active stablecoin wallets has now reached 40 million! 📈📈😮
From: https://assets.stripeassets.com/fzn2n1nzq965/4oKUptrHRWY03cFFaczVTP/e540fdc6ce090e5affc974ba5481cd87/Stripe-annual-letter-2024-mobile.pdf
From: https://assets.stripeassets.com/fzn2n1nzq965/4oKUptrHRWY03cFFaczVTP/e540fdc6ce090e5affc974ba5481cd87/Stripe-annual-letter-2024-mobile.pdf
