What if the tilting towards Trump of Polymarket odds is a result not of changing conditions in the election but rather on crypto prices going up and degens betting more on Trump?

https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1846660964105453836?t=qFzoIqnPaaRouhz0XxDb3w&s=19

/predictions

226828

Lukas

@pita·

What's everyone view of UMA oracle? A necessary oracle for prediction markets or would you rather have a centralised authority settling it because you can properly build a history of precedents?

Shipped a new main markets look for Prognoze.xyz - leveraged prediction markets.

Testnet live now!

Now Kalshi’s doing the same thing:
4.05% APY on bets.

Hoping that prediction market defi expands the scope of betting incentives — a lot of idle capital waiting on the sidelines.

https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844418791800717642

What if insiders thought HBO would get it right so they bet on Len Sassaman on polymarket?

Testnet Prognoze.xyz is live, excited to hear any feedback!

Introducing Prognoze: prediction markets with leverage up to 10x (for now).

Testnet on Base Sepolia is available now: http://prognoze.xyz

Claim testnet trading tokens now on the /claim page. Ping me if you need testnet ETH (limited supply!)

cc @jessepollak

Launched prognoze.xyz on testnet - prediction markets with leverage!

https://x.com/LukasMikelionis/status/1843410925342339314?t=8uI2eUxP4ACwhyD2O0iZfA&s=19

What do you think chat?

Here are our bets for the onchain market in 2025! 🔮👇

What do you think? 🤔

https://powered-by.percs.app/frames/4ff1d2c9-0057-48bd-8ba4-2bd591cec5c6/1

I have many reservations about how some "leveraged" prediction markets are being implemented. Offering Harris/Trump based on Polymarket price feed does not mean you made leverage happen in prediction markets. It's a one-off event.

My stab at a problem will launch on testnet in the next week or so. Excited about it

it's interesting to see interactive brokers offering an incentive coupon for locked capital on bets.

one of the issues with prediction markets today is that longer time horizon markets don't offer an incentive for effectively staking into it. will be curious to see how this factors into trader decision making.

https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php

The Take Is Too Damn High positioning from “Read Write Own” will be what makes onchain popular again,

but it will have to come from creatives instead of a VC.

Almost a @polymarket bet: I will lose my danbux in 2 days.

GN

The “founder mode” essay will cause many founders without the context of Brian Chesky’s talk to justify whatever management technique they want as “founder mode”

https://paulgraham.com/foundermode.html

Nuclear fusion energy + AI

Will lead humanity into a golden age of prosperity

im thinking

global recession spooks markets early fall.. everything hurts

then everyone rushes into crypto to chase and protect their gains at all costs

the final cycle

👀

feelings checkin pls

https://x.com/ddwchen/status/1823122408217403526

/predictions