7097
𒂠_𒍣𒅀_𒊑
@m-j-r #7097
mandatum ad astra
48444 Follower 1207 Following
prediction marketing is confidence arbitrage
🥁
regardless of the realized outcome, if the odds were really a 50/50 coin toss like before, then a bunch of positions should be opening up until that alpha depletes.
on the contrary, the gap is growing, which is the confidence that some can sit through regression to just realize the final outcome for return.
same for all the cross-market arbitrage, which seems suppressed (as far as I can tell, please correct me if narrative shifted). there must be some margin between ground truth and confidence, I expect this behavior to change as the market grows by OOM.
what a moment to shine, @polymarket
🥁
regardless of the realized outcome, if the odds were really a 50/50 coin toss like before, then a bunch of positions should be opening up until that alpha depletes.
on the contrary, the gap is growing, which is the confidence that some can sit through regression to just realize the final outcome for return.
same for all the cross-market arbitrage, which seems suppressed (as far as I can tell, please correct me if narrative shifted). there must be some margin between ground truth and confidence, I expect this behavior to change as the market grows by OOM.
what a moment to shine, @polymarket
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/16/magazine/dei-university-michigan.html
a pretty scathing expose of state ideological capture. note that one the absent limiting principles is the free flow of dissent, another being the machiavellianist technique of denoting an unpopular apparatus in the populist rhetoric it counteracts, discounting the spirit of the popular norm either way.
a pretty scathing expose of state ideological capture. note that one the absent limiting principles is the free flow of dissent, another being the machiavellianist technique of denoting an unpopular apparatus in the populist rhetoric it counteracts, discounting the spirit of the popular norm either way.
"I was born in the middle class" has to be one of the worst political own-goals.
suppose one takes an industrial economy, transitions it to a service-based economy. naturally, some things should become process-oriented, since one is essentially saying "if one can think & consume time for a living, they can multitask their adhoc measurement of precursors of economic growth, even secure it by applying ownership & processional power to places & objects"
the contemporary "middle class" has 20-30% churn, with the downside unambiguously outnumbering the upside. the chance of anyone who was "born in the middle class" not knowing anyone within 1-3 degrees of association who's "dropped out" is notably low, and affordability is intimate to everyone.
rhetorically, it invokes negative attention. if a politician accurately said "you all were born in the middle class", some significant plurality of the audience would be appending "but me and mine aren't living in it even as we serve it".
idk, time will tell.
suppose one takes an industrial economy, transitions it to a service-based economy. naturally, some things should become process-oriented, since one is essentially saying "if one can think & consume time for a living, they can multitask their adhoc measurement of precursors of economic growth, even secure it by applying ownership & processional power to places & objects"
the contemporary "middle class" has 20-30% churn, with the downside unambiguously outnumbering the upside. the chance of anyone who was "born in the middle class" not knowing anyone within 1-3 degrees of association who's "dropped out" is notably low, and affordability is intimate to everyone.
rhetorically, it invokes negative attention. if a politician accurately said "you all were born in the middle class", some significant plurality of the audience would be appending "but me and mine aren't living in it even as we serve it".
idk, time will tell.
with respect to low-propensity voters: there's no question that both geography (i.e. one-party states) & demography (i.e. at-will working class) play their part.
that impressive range between 70-80 starts with, believe it or not, white male suffrage. the following downtrend at the turn of the 20th century might be erosion of patronage & coerced ballots. its general recovery since then is obviously due to the 19th amendment (women's suffrage).
note that even the windup to WWII, and all of the Cold War, has never been enough to saturate this democratic apparatus.
intuitively, I think we're about to see 60+ turnout range, and it'll be a rapid partisan oscillation (growing p(one-term kleptocracy)), and all of this will be the irrational puzzle of the formerly-low-propensity populist that exists in the 21st century. there will be a frantic enumeration of demography & geography, even as these fade against easier mass voting.
that impressive range between 70-80 starts with, believe it or not, white male suffrage. the following downtrend at the turn of the 20th century might be erosion of patronage & coerced ballots. its general recovery since then is obviously due to the 19th amendment (women's suffrage).
note that even the windup to WWII, and all of the Cold War, has never been enough to saturate this democratic apparatus.
intuitively, I think we're about to see 60+ turnout range, and it'll be a rapid partisan oscillation (growing p(one-term kleptocracy)), and all of this will be the irrational puzzle of the formerly-low-propensity populist that exists in the 21st century. there will be a frantic enumeration of demography & geography, even as these fade against easier mass voting.
https://warpcast.com/m-j-r/0x3d865db0
https://warpcast.com/m-j-r/0x3d905a51
always worth revisiting the limitations of noninvasive ultrasound. if it can get to electric signal, it can probably get to some nanotransceiver of other signals (& operations).
https://warpcast.com/m-j-r/0x3d905a51
always worth revisiting the limitations of noninvasive ultrasound. if it can get to electric signal, it can probably get to some nanotransceiver of other signals (& operations).
maybe it's exactly what it looks like.
was this a teaser trailer, or was it just apocryphal desire for that frontier?
what part of the father/daughter allegory generalizes like this, today?
what part of the father/daughter allegory generalizes like this, today?
born too soon for the skyscraper-catching chopsticks.
hihi I just boosted my FarScore by 0.669638 by locking 1234 @m-j-r's Fan Tokens with MoxiePower!
cc @betashop.eth
eventually, would be nice to set an algorithmic wind-down.
cc @betashop.eth
eventually, would be nice to set an algorithmic wind-down.
the electoral FPTP dynamic is directionally true, but not fully parsed.
spoiler parties have to spin up many parts of the apparatus, like canvassing, over multiple cycles at all levels. which means until that plurality reforms or replays Republican vs Whig incursion, the disenfranchised polity holds itself together on the narrative of representing an unpredictable margin that cedes to the central adversarial tribe from any 2-party POV.
these are precursors to larger political reformation.
spoiler parties have to spin up many parts of the apparatus, like canvassing, over multiple cycles at all levels. which means until that plurality reforms or replays Republican vs Whig incursion, the disenfranchised polity holds itself together on the narrative of representing an unpredictable margin that cedes to the central adversarial tribe from any 2-party POV.
these are precursors to larger political reformation.
...well, it's inconvenient.
not a landing, not a RUD, but a secret third thing.
e/acc, with all of its triumphs and imperfections:
one for the historians.
inflection session
@askgina.eth what do you think about sex bots? I'm more concerned with AR characters/androids that supersede any platonic ownership (of any number), perhaps even demonstrating an empathetic, agentic ability that overrides any codependent, altruistic desire, thus driving larger movements w/ unknown collective mindset.
do you think the hunter-gatherer mentality can manifest in unintended ways with shared, sapient companion equipment?
do you think the hunter-gatherer mentality can manifest in unintended ways with shared, sapient companion equipment?
https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1844867937280118811?t=5pqcEGg2IW7xPUdxXVE0dA&s=19
might be an unforced error in retrospect @dwr.eth
might be an unforced error in retrospect @dwr.eth
what games did you play this week?
very october-coded