I don't think Nate Silver being an advisor to PM is influencing his forecasts at all, or that he's a "Thiel shill" or whatever, but I think it does mean he has a harder time explaining clearly (like he does) why there's such a big bias there, he *barely* mentions any of that:
* PM trading is illegal in the USA
* PM is more promoted to right-wingers
* it's in a right-leaning bubble (crypto)
* socio-economic groups that are more likely to vote for Harris are less likely to gamble (to put it nicely), opposite is true for Trump
* way more fishes than sharks in that market

/Polymarket

301340

Kieran Daniels 🎩

@kdaniels.eth·

https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1843359491921793375?s=46

There is a prediction market on Manifold Markets about whether @polymarket will move away from UMA (the resolution oracle, to put it roughly).

https://x.com/manifoldmarkets/status/1843625501417746892?s=46

I think there might be popular vote electoral vote arbitrage atm

Len: American cryptographer, died 2011 at 31
Is Len the real Satoshi?

opening of Kamala on Call Her Daddy

can i make a Polymarket that Trump or JD will go on CHD? 👀

If we could geo locate the wallet addresses that are bidding YES on Kamala markets, I bet they would be in the DC area code.

https://x.com/johnstrandusa/status/1842781513844203798?s=46

https://x.com/domahhhh/status/1842744676853670360

https://x.com/punk9059/status/1842358192518615199?s=46

Polymarket Introduces Betting Market on Satoshi Nakamoto's Identity

Users are betting on who HBO will reveal as Bitcoin's creator, with 47% favoring renowned cryptographer Len Sassaman as the likely candidate.

world's most obvious trade. don't say I didn't warn you.

back to back 30%+ wins on polymarket. so tempting to add more zeros behind the bets now.

One of my non-crypto, non-tech friends just sent me a @polymarket screenshot

fuck it we ball

So polymarket had the chances of eigen doing their airdrop (on or before 30th September) at 98% as at yesterday.
Eigen dropped the information and they're dropping on 1st October lol. A lot of Ls to people. Imagine the sure guy that bought at 90%.

/Polymarket