352276
Njal
@cryptonjal #352276
Interests: crypto, economics, TA & blockchain related innovations | π https://linktr.ee/cryptonjal π https://dune.com/nhejyht
473 Follower 426 Following
Some changes to my Farcaster dashboard to measure size and quality of Farcaster:
- Added label flow with the weekly changes of the labels, and the netflows of those label changes. Data is tracked and generously shared by @mvr
- I have equalized the visible data for most data to the last 360 days or to the last 21 days/3 weeks. This makes it easier to compare the data.
https://dune.com/nhejyht/farcaster-dashboard
- Added label flow with the weekly changes of the labels, and the netflows of those label changes. Data is tracked and generously shared by @mvr
- I have equalized the visible data for most data to the last 360 days or to the last 21 days/3 weeks. This makes it easier to compare the data.
https://dune.com/nhejyht/farcaster-dashboard
1/2 Reaction to both QC, and the QC in the QC (https://warpcast.com/ted/0x348171cb); my own view on this matter.
1a). This cycle, there wasn't any new retail. BTCUSD price appreciation came more from institutional investors (imo).
1b). As a result, altseason (Jun. '24βApr. '25) was relative to ETH, and not to BTC (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3AETH%2FCRYPTOCAP%3ATOTAL2) .
1c). DEGEN price appreciation is going down hill from the start, because there isn't new inflow of retail investors, and like more altcoins, there wasn't enough liquidity to make a higher low.
2). It's indeed not realistic to generate a full-time sustainable income on Farcaster, however the wealth they delivered (if sold) came from other casters acting as exit liquidity (because of 1a, b and c). But they were first movers on this tipping market, what gave them more appreciation at the start.
1a). This cycle, there wasn't any new retail. BTCUSD price appreciation came more from institutional investors (imo).
1b). As a result, altseason (Jun. '24βApr. '25) was relative to ETH, and not to BTC (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3AETH%2FCRYPTOCAP%3ATOTAL2) .
1c). DEGEN price appreciation is going down hill from the start, because there isn't new inflow of retail investors, and like more altcoins, there wasn't enough liquidity to make a higher low.
2). It's indeed not realistic to generate a full-time sustainable income on Farcaster, however the wealth they delivered (if sold) came from other casters acting as exit liquidity (because of 1a, b and c). But they were first movers on this tipping market, what gave them more appreciation at the start.
234616
Pichi
@pichiΒ·2 days ago
Read the QC and then read it again.
I donβt love βcome to Farcaster to make moneyβ. I think it paints the wrong picture and the incentives are structured to rewards top level casts at all costs.
I think we are still too early for that storyline.
Come to Farcaster to chill with the innovator class. You might also get some cool airdrops or stumble upon a project in its early stages or make a little cash.
You will meet incredible humans if you bridge the gap between URL and IRL. You will make magic internet friends. You will be on the front lines of a new era of social not owned and managed by big tech.
It doesnβt have to be all about crypto, but you will do better here if you lean in and test all the tech that comes across your feed.
You probably canβt quit your full time gig and make a living hereβ¦yet. But I see the rails being built and itβs worth my time and attention.
I donβt love βcome to Farcaster to make moneyβ. I think it paints the wrong picture and the incentives are structured to rewards top level casts at all costs.
I think we are still too early for that storyline.
Come to Farcaster to chill with the innovator class. You might also get some cool airdrops or stumble upon a project in its early stages or make a little cash.
You will meet incredible humans if you bridge the gap between URL and IRL. You will make magic internet friends. You will be on the front lines of a new era of social not owned and managed by big tech.
It doesnβt have to be all about crypto, but you will do better here if you lean in and test all the tech that comes across your feed.
You probably canβt quit your full time gig and make a living hereβ¦yet. But I see the rails being built and itβs worth my time and attention.
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ted (not lasso)
@tedΒ·2 days ago
hard truths:
1. crypto isnβt growing, in fact itβs more cringe than ever because of the new admin embracing it / $trump
2. itβs not realistic to generate a full-time sustainable income on farcaster, $degen and $higher were anomaly wealth events
3. majority of the world doesnβt think in terms of markets 24/7
1. crypto isnβt growing, in fact itβs more cringe than ever because of the new admin embracing it / $trump
2. itβs not realistic to generate a full-time sustainable income on farcaster, $degen and $higher were anomaly wealth events
3. majority of the world doesnβt think in terms of markets 24/7
Another afterburner. To measure the size of Farcaster, and especially of the non-spammers, I put together a Dune. It has become a compromise to prevent timeouts, but it measures how many FIDs have been active in the last 21 days over the past 9 days.
Yesterday's figures of active FIDs were:
label 0: 92,375
label 1: 17,294
label 2: 23,480
no label: 14,962
Total: 148,111 (7 days before 157,063)
I added it here: https://dune.com/nhejyht/farcaster-dashboard
Yesterday's figures of active FIDs were:
label 0: 92,375
label 1: 17,294
label 2: 23,480
no label: 14,962
Total: 148,111 (7 days before 157,063)
I added it here: https://dune.com/nhejyht/farcaster-dashboard
I was clearly wrong, but learned something about Elliot wave theory
- don't fractalize too much in your analyses;
- you never know if a 3-waves pattern will be a 5-wave pattern;
- Corrective waves are more diverse in shapes than impulse waves, and that makes it more challenging. And I need more experience on that matter;
- keep an eye on the volume during corrections
Anyway, nice move up. ETH price movement shows that the altseason is over. It's all relative to ETH now.
I'm still bearish for this summer, but please don't believe me, I just love bears at this moment.
Next note to myself: probably a flat on the BTCUSD (weekly chart) target around 74.5k has the most change, could even be 65k. Not a very clear timing on this one.
Still trying things out. Will see if I do better this timing, but I like to be premature on these things. π
- don't fractalize too much in your analyses;
- you never know if a 3-waves pattern will be a 5-wave pattern;
- Corrective waves are more diverse in shapes than impulse waves, and that makes it more challenging. And I need more experience on that matter;
- keep an eye on the volume during corrections
Anyway, nice move up. ETH price movement shows that the altseason is over. It's all relative to ETH now.
I'm still bearish for this summer, but please don't believe me, I just love bears at this moment.
Next note to myself: probably a flat on the BTCUSD (weekly chart) target around 74.5k has the most change, could even be 65k. Not a very clear timing on this one.
Still trying things out. Will see if I do better this timing, but I like to be premature on these things. π
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I just minted the Monet On Monad collectible available only to early Monad users on Farcaster.
I'm a Manhattan crypto bro! Which one are you?
Interesting development that I can see a testnet token in my Warplet; prominently, non hidden, and not clearly mentioned as testnet token in the wallet itself.
This is where keeping the wallet simple clashes with generating revenue with Warpcast.
I can't see the difference between this testnet token, received tokens or scam tokens without a known price. That's not what you want, is it? A notification that you received testnet tokens doesn't make it right. I appreciate the experiments and understand that Merkle Industries needs to generate money, but this doesn't seem like the way to go. If this happens more often, it will become more of an advertising pillar than a usable wallet. Keep testnet and tokens that represent value clearly separated.
This is where keeping the wallet simple clashes with generating revenue with Warpcast.
I can't see the difference between this testnet token, received tokens or scam tokens without a known price. That's not what you want, is it? A notification that you received testnet tokens doesn't make it right. I appreciate the experiments and understand that Merkle Industries needs to generate money, but this doesn't seem like the way to go. If this happens more often, it will become more of an advertising pillar than a usable wallet. Keep testnet and tokens that represent value clearly separated.
Interesting research and hypothesis regarding Gabagool
20258
Nastya
@nastyaΒ·5 days ago
The βNumbers Go Upβ game or intentional fraud?
A story about fake devs, forgotten projects launched with @clanker, @proxystudio.eth and how someone may be making thousands of dollars monthly on Farcaster using fake accounts
A story about fake devs, forgotten projects launched with @clanker, @proxystudio.eth and how someone may be making thousands of dollars monthly on Farcaster using fake accounts
war destroys, war traumatizes and yet we fall for it every time.
Fuck war
Fuck war
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post a picture of yourself to prove youβre not another gabagool alt.
269694
Bitfloorsghost
@bitfloorsghost.ethΒ·18:20 05/05/2025
post a picture of yourself to prove youβre not another gabagool alt.
Does it sound reasonable when I say BTCUSD around $66.5k in mid-July? Or just testing the ATH of '21 (69k)... π€
Anyway, trying things out with Elliot wave. No advice.
Anyway, trying things out with Elliot wave. No advice.
Don't worry about distribution, That is only a quantitative measure
1. Cast things you like
2. Follow people you like
3. Respond to things that interest you
That's all.
And if you're new: just start casting into the dark, and do the things above. If you're picky on subjects you're interested in, use Buoy (mini app) or search for interesting channels to see if there are people you like.
But if you read this cast, you are probably already very deep down this rabbit hole.
1. Cast things you like
2. Follow people you like
3. Respond to things that interest you
That's all.
And if you're new: just start casting into the dark, and do the things above. If you're picky on subjects you're interested in, use Buoy (mini app) or search for interesting channels to see if there are people you like.
But if you read this cast, you are probably already very deep down this rabbit hole.
2
Varun Srinivasan
@vΒ·21:53 04/05/2025
I spent a little time with casters at FC who complained about not getting enough distribution.
I found three problems that affected most casters. If you want to increase your distribution, try fixing these first.
I found three problems that affected most casters. If you want to increase your distribution, try fixing these first.
This response from @mvr made me think: is Farcaster relatively more US than the rest of the world?
I approached it model-based (and also asked ChatGPT how many people live in each time zone). The starting point is that one is awake for 16 hours. Then it becomes clear that when more people in the US are awake, the most is cast in relation to the number of awake people.
So the answer is: yes, it does seem that people in the US are relatively more active on Farcaster (theoretically, it could also be other American countries).
Timezone used: UTC
I approached it model-based (and also asked ChatGPT how many people live in each time zone). The starting point is that one is awake for 16 hours. Then it becomes clear that when more people in the US are awake, the most is cast in relation to the number of awake people.
So the answer is: yes, it does seem that people in the US are relatively more active on Farcaster (theoretically, it could also be other American countries).
Timezone used: UTC
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I like the fuss from not being there.π
I just minted the Not at Farcon collectible only for those without Farcon passes. Join me in starting a new cabal!
I just minted the Not at Farcon collectible only for those without Farcon passes. Join me in starting a new cabal!
One more. Activity during the day (avg. from the last 2 weeks), basically activity goes up from 0h UTC till 16h, and then it goes down again. That daily dip is the fault of the great ocean. So at 16h (UTC) in the afternoon you have the greatest range. Interestingly enough, the quality of the casts goes down as Asia and Europe go to sleep.
https://dune.com/nhejyht/farcaster-dashboard
https://dune.com/nhejyht/farcaster-dashboard
Anyway, these are some thoughts I have.Another spin-off after calculating Farcaster's quantity and quality. I forgot, but investors invested $180M in Farcaster, with the latest deal ($150M) in May 2024. The value of Merkle Manufacturing was estimated at $1B. But, if you look at the image, the protocol revenue over the last 90 days on a given day collapsed after end June 2024.
Imo measuring Farcaster growth, and quality can be as simple as we did last days here:
- Volume in engagement
- Quality of that engagement (in this case by spam label)
- Number of 1D, and 5d in a row casters
https://dune.com/nhejyht/farcaster-dashboard
By the way, don't know who came up with 5d, but seems an excellent idea to me. It gets rid of some noise while the numbers stay big enough.
- Volume in engagement
- Quality of that engagement (in this case by spam label)
- Number of 1D, and 5d in a row casters
https://dune.com/nhejyht/farcaster-dashboard
By the way, don't know who came up with 5d, but seems an excellent idea to me. It gets rid of some noise while the numbers stay big enough.
Based on Rewards data until last week (thanks to @mvr for the data), and current (Apr. 30th '25) spam labels and cast data:
62.4% of all rewards receivers (all periods) has currently casted 5 days in a row.
https://dune.com/queries/5063189/8359939
86.5% of all receivers have currently a level 2 spam label, and 7.4% has currently a level 0 spam label.
https://dune.com/queries/5063189/8359946
62.4% of all rewards receivers (all periods) has currently casted 5 days in a row.
https://dune.com/queries/5063189/8359939
86.5% of all receivers have currently a level 2 spam label, and 7.4% has currently a level 0 spam label.
https://dune.com/queries/5063189/8359946
234616
Pichi
@pichiΒ·08:13 29/04/2025
Oooh, that would be cool to look at.
i wonder if we can start to overlay this with rewards.
Do daily casters get rewarded or is the true driver who you are connected to (aka who is liking and replying to your posts!)
i wonder if we can start to overlay this with rewards.
Do daily casters get rewarded or is the true driver who you are connected to (aka who is liking and replying to your posts!)
What could go wrong?
- AI is only used for communication, not for strategy in this tool
- Copycat trading isn't a good strategy you're only repeat another person's mistakes or your buying into green candle sticks, and maybe function as exit liquidity.
- in an up market it could look like that it works, but you probably could have profits anyway.
- without analysis your trading blind.
It would surprise me if this survives the bear market.
- AI is only used for communication, not for strategy in this tool
- Copycat trading isn't a good strategy you're only repeat another person's mistakes or your buying into green candle sticks, and maybe function as exit liquidity.
- in an up market it could look like that it works, but you probably could have profits anyway.
- without analysis your trading blind.
It would surprise me if this survives the bear market.
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I always wonder what the chances of success are for a second project, if the first project is suddenly abandoned and people run for the exit... π€
It is not unusual for projects to stop or fail, but migrating to another product/project does require more strategy and tact to maintain trust.
It is not unusual for projects to stop or fail, but migrating to another product/project does require more strategy and tact to maintain trust.
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Got some interesting replies, and tried to test some hypothesis with data (other replies were interesting as well, but not tested by me). π§΅
First, @mvr pointed out to zoom out.
- The downtrend of Jan. and Mar. '25 is part of a larger downtrend that's started on May 22nd, 2024.
- The uptrend from Feb till end May was (imo) driven by the innovation of frames, and degen tipping. Interestingly enough also on May 22nd, 2024 there was the news that Farcaster raised $150M. https://cointelegraph.com/news/degen-token-surges-17-farcaster-raise-150-million The Theory of Contrary Opinion would suggest that such good news is always around the top.
First, @mvr pointed out to zoom out.
- The downtrend of Jan. and Mar. '25 is part of a larger downtrend that's started on May 22nd, 2024.
- The uptrend from Feb till end May was (imo) driven by the innovation of frames, and degen tipping. Interestingly enough also on May 22nd, 2024 there was the news that Farcaster raised $150M. https://cointelegraph.com/news/degen-token-surges-17-farcaster-raise-150-million The Theory of Contrary Opinion would suggest that such good news is always around the top.
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Still wondering why casts, and reactions, are lowering.
- Is this because of fewer accounts harvesting token drops like degen?
- is this the effect of showing the spam label?
- a combination of these things or something else?
- Is this because of fewer accounts harvesting token drops like degen?
- is this the effect of showing the spam label?
- a combination of these things or something else?
Houses (in the US) are even less affordable than in the run-up to the mortgage crisis in 2008.
Something like that, but older. No CD-ROM, and not sure if it was a 186 or a 286. 20 Mb harddrive.
Did some things with batch files, and Qbasic. Also, Lotus 123 (I'm more of a spreadsheet man π)
Did some things with batch files, and Qbasic. Also, Lotus 123 (I'm more of a spreadsheet man π)
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If you have $100,- to spend and you can or buy 1 token A or buy 0.1 token B, than people will favour token A. Even if it is the same, it doesn't feel the same. Unit bias makes you crave a whole token.
For the rest, price appreciation now, and supply aren't going to save your pockets in the bear market.
For the rest, price appreciation now, and supply aren't going to save your pockets in the bear market.
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If it's good to be true, it probably is. But it's hard to keep thinking clearly when you see the golden mountains.
The use several human weaknesses to make you interact, and letting you do what they want you to do. E.g.:
- when you get a compliment you feel like to owe a response or action in return
- scarcity ("we need to move to the next candidate") makes the opportunity feels more valuable
- Time pressure ("we need to meet right now") makes sure you won't think critically about everything
The use several human weaknesses to make you interact, and letting you do what they want you to do. E.g.:
- when you get a compliment you feel like to owe a response or action in return
- scarcity ("we need to move to the next candidate") makes the opportunity feels more valuable
- Time pressure ("we need to meet right now") makes sure you won't think critically about everything
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I won't tell you, but there will be signs...
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Just shared 436,370.83 In the end we are all dust (based, ca: 0xF9b1997ECdFC90AF3177dF722f1f9D48159e8923) with the 35 casters holding this NFT.
I shared it evenly to nudge sharing this NFT with other (wallets).
I shared it evenly to nudge sharing this NFT with other (wallets).
I think it's a mistake to expect a equal distribution of FarCon tickets depending on FID number. I would expect a more negative logaritmic distribution or to make it simple: I would expect that roughly the first 20% lowest FIDs have 80% of the FarCon tickets. That seems, more or less, the case (it's a rull of thumb).
Wouldn't suggest that going to FarCon is a quality indicator. It's more a commitment indicator, and I would expect more commitment by low fids. There is in general a reason why they where closer to the fire, and adapted earlier than others.
Wouldn't suggest that going to FarCon is a quality indicator. It's more a commitment indicator, and I would expect more commitment by low fids. There is in general a reason why they where closer to the fire, and adapted earlier than others.
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What fundamental problem does a 'content coin' solve?
There is certainly no extra money coming into the market to appreciate content. Most appreciation currently comes from tips, which come from other people's pockets. Warpcast also conveniently uses the bias that people value money received differently than money you worked for by sending a weekly notification after the rewards have been distributed to tip others. For the rest, there is little to expect.
There is certainly no extra money coming into the market to appreciate content. Most appreciation currently comes from tips, which come from other people's pockets. Warpcast also conveniently uses the bias that people value money received differently than money you worked for by sending a weekly notification after the rewards have been distributed to tip others. For the rest, there is little to expect.
If you like so:
1. Ignore. It never happened
2. Keep trolling until it comes down, and post screenshot to show how smart you are
3. Change the story, and ignore what you said earlier (for 1984 pro's)
1. Ignore. It never happened
2. Keep trolling until it comes down, and post screenshot to show how smart you are
3. Change the story, and ignore what you said earlier (for 1984 pro's)
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Best summary of 'content coins' so far
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Love it π₯
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πͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺ
πͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺ
πͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺ
πͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺ
πͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺβ¬πͺπͺ
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πͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺ
πͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺπͺ
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Warpcast does not distinguish itself by copying the revenue model of other SM. Part of its strength was that you got to see genuine messages and not promoted messages.
Hopefully this is a mistake that will soon be forgotten.
Hopefully this is a mistake that will soon be forgotten.
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Still speechless about the "you are infinitely more stupid than me + 1" battle between the US and China.
This trade war is far from rational, and I wonder where it ends.
(Image is made by ChatGPT btw)
This trade war is far from rational, and I wonder where it ends.
(Image is made by ChatGPT btw)
Interesting discussion about the barrier (or the lack of it) to create a token. For me there are to sides of it
- business: what is the value of a token if it isn't scarcity. You have to add value to the token. Even Monopoly money has value because you cant play the game without it, and an alternative cost more money.
- economic: people are focusing on the supply side, but the demand side is also important, and probably more important in most cases than the supply side.
The future of tokens will be driven by added value, not by their existence or scarcity. Things are going well as they are, but currently that does mean that retail investments are punished if there is no new retail to buy the top. institutional interest lies mainly in Bitcoin.
- business: what is the value of a token if it isn't scarcity. You have to add value to the token. Even Monopoly money has value because you cant play the game without it, and an alternative cost more money.
- economic: people are focusing on the supply side, but the demand side is also important, and probably more important in most cases than the supply side.
The future of tokens will be driven by added value, not by their existence or scarcity. Things are going well as they are, but currently that does mean that retail investments are punished if there is no new retail to buy the top. institutional interest lies mainly in Bitcoin.
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I almost forgot this cup and handle pattern. It's just retesting the neckline. Isn't it beautiful?
πͺπ»Let it be a really good Friday
π Check out this prediction
π Check out this prediction
