352276
Njal
@cryptonjal #352276
Interests: crypto, economics, TA & blockchain related innovations | Links: https://linktr.ee/cryptonjal
437 Follower 399 Following
@mvr even added a graph to it. I have looked at the multiple correlations with regression analyses.
- When I calculate the multiple correlation of 0 or 2 with other variables, they appear to have no significant correlation between 0 en 2. These are clearly different groups.
- In a regression analysis between 1 and the other variables (0, 2 and time), all variables are significant and 2 plays a greater role than 0.
This seems to indicate that in label 1 the chance of spammy accounts is greater than for non-spammy accounts (a factor of 5.6).
Strictly speaking, too simplistic, but still an indication in my opinion.
- When I calculate the multiple correlation of 0 or 2 with other variables, they appear to have no significant correlation between 0 en 2. These are clearly different groups.
- In a regression analysis between 1 and the other variables (0, 2 and time), all variables are significant and 2 plays a greater role than 0.
This seems to indicate that in label 1 the chance of spammy accounts is greater than for non-spammy accounts (a factor of 5.6).
Strictly speaking, too simplistic, but still an indication in my opinion.
234616
Pichi 🟪🍖🐹🎩 🍡🌸
@pichi·a day ago
How many of these folks cast consistently? (5 days in a row!)
11,558
How many of them are considered quality casters? (Level 2 spam labels)
2,110
https://dune.com/queries/4742322
Epic query by @mvr
11,558
How many of them are considered quality casters? (Level 2 spam labels)
2,110
https://dune.com/queries/4742322
Epic query by @mvr
Not sure if in I should be scared to drop out of the $3-tier, or that I should be scared that I'm that high in the rankings with such low engagement score (I assume that all active casters has unlocked the 500 points boost).
Rewarding with NFTs/art 🎨 🖼️👇🏻
427349
Dosir Ⓡ 🍖🐹🥣
@dosir·a day ago
Gham rewardrs,
happy new week.
We working on an ERC1155 update for rewardr.
If you like to drop your art / NFTs let me know. We looking for some beta testers soon. Will take some time until it starts.
Stay rewarded
happy new week.
We working on an ERC1155 update for rewardr.
If you like to drop your art / NFTs let me know. We looking for some beta testers soon. Will take some time until it starts.
Stay rewarded
Much better
352276
Njal
@cryptonjal·2 days ago
When you are not sure about touching grass or preparing for WW3 😁
When you are not sure about touching grass or preparing for WW3 😁
This is why, when multiple people are casting that they have a new job in crypto you should look for a top. 🎢📉
2
Varun Srinivasan
@v·3 days ago
Back in 2015 we noticed that employee satisfaction was highly correlated with price if you joined the company in a bull market, and uncorrelated if your start date was in a bear market.
The magic number is 3
I'm a Speculator-Pragmatist (3.0, 3.0) on the Onchain Alignment Chart! Check out your position:
I'm a Speculator-Pragmatist (3.0, 3.0) on the Onchain Alignment Chart! Check out your position:
If you're wandering where we are in the economic cycle: $88.000,- for one single Cheeto 🤑
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephaniegravalese/2025/03/06/cheetozard-a-pokmon-shaped-cheeto-sold-for-88000-heres-why/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephaniegravalese/2025/03/06/cheetozard-a-pokmon-shaped-cheeto-sold-for-88000-heres-why/
Love this bull market fibe.
It won't last, when they (FC) need new users, and traction the most, and when users need money the most.
It won't last, when they (FC) need new users, and traction the most, and when users need money the most.
680
woj
@woj.eth·6 days ago
farcaster = passive income
GM☕🥐
Alsof interesting that style and outcome (showing complete tarot card or not) differs between one prompt, and the other when asking the same style
Alsof interesting that style and outcome (showing complete tarot card or not) differs between one prompt, and the other when asking the same style
GM☕🥐
- The Phantom Trader -
- The Phantom Trader -
I can buy the dip 🥲
I think I was wrong on the short term timing (thanks to FSC on YT).
They estimate the next 200d cycle peak (195d atm) for BTCUSD around May 15th.
- If there is an expected Economic Confidence Cycle bottom around begin June '25, and consumer confidence is dropping already (USCCI), then a top before that would be logic.
- 'Sell in May and go away'
- ETH seasonality tops in June (on a monthly scale)
- Average Weekly Hours is dropping since April '21, and is now at the same level as March '20 level
DYOR, cycles are only about timing!
They estimate the next 200d cycle peak (195d atm) for BTCUSD around May 15th.
- If there is an expected Economic Confidence Cycle bottom around begin June '25, and consumer confidence is dropping already (USCCI), then a top before that would be logic.
- 'Sell in May and go away'
- ETH seasonality tops in June (on a monthly scale)
- Average Weekly Hours is dropping since April '21, and is now at the same level as March '20 level
DYOR, cycles are only about timing!
352276
Njal
@cryptonjal·08:36 02/03/2025
Based on the Economic Confidence Cycle (Armstrong), I would say growing uncertainty until beginning June '25, and economic confidence topping halfway Jan '26, and a bottom in second half '28.
Based on the real estate cycle, there will be an economic crisis in '26.
Based on the 200 day BTC-cycle (check FSC on YT) a BTCUSD cycle bottom around May 4th '25, and a BTCUSD cycle top around Aug. 12, '25. The real top in BTCUSD can be shifted. Based on 30%-70% probability (n=4=not reliable) a top between Jul. 7th and Oct. 22nd '25, with a 50% probability before or after Aug. 29th '25.
As a high beta asset, BTC is most vulnerable when both expected inflation, and expected economic growth is coming down.
Based on this, my economic expectation is that:
- uncertainty until May/Jun '25
- economy starts to sign cracks (expected inflation coming down, and expected economic growth coming down) around Aug. '25
- Economic crisis start to emerge around Q1 '26.
Timing is hard, so don't take these dates too seriously! DYOR
Based on the real estate cycle, there will be an economic crisis in '26.
Based on the 200 day BTC-cycle (check FSC on YT) a BTCUSD cycle bottom around May 4th '25, and a BTCUSD cycle top around Aug. 12, '25. The real top in BTCUSD can be shifted. Based on 30%-70% probability (n=4=not reliable) a top between Jul. 7th and Oct. 22nd '25, with a 50% probability before or after Aug. 29th '25.
As a high beta asset, BTC is most vulnerable when both expected inflation, and expected economic growth is coming down.
Based on this, my economic expectation is that:
- uncertainty until May/Jun '25
- economy starts to sign cracks (expected inflation coming down, and expected economic growth coming down) around Aug. '25
- Economic crisis start to emerge around Q1 '26.
Timing is hard, so don't take these dates too seriously! DYOR
Cleaning up who I'm following. 🧹
I'm sorry if this offends anyone, but as spam labels become more popular, it becomes more important for 0s (likely to spam) to appear legitimate by enticing 2s (unlikely to spam) to follow and interact with them. Therefore, low quality casters have been removed, even though I had previously given them the benefit of the doubt.
The only thing you can beat spammers and scammers on is the quality of their casts. Quality costs time (= money), the rest can be imitated. Besides, resources are always limited, so more quality means less spam.
Setting a lower limit on the quality of casters I choose to follow is the most important thing I can do to reduce spam.
I'm sorry if this offends anyone, but as spam labels become more popular, it becomes more important for 0s (likely to spam) to appear legitimate by enticing 2s (unlikely to spam) to follow and interact with them. Therefore, low quality casters have been removed, even though I had previously given them the benefit of the doubt.
The only thing you can beat spammers and scammers on is the quality of their casts. Quality costs time (= money), the rest can be imitated. Besides, resources are always limited, so more quality means less spam.
Setting a lower limit on the quality of casters I choose to follow is the most important thing I can do to reduce spam.
I am in THE BOLE
THE BOLE starts to cook. I am ID 0087 and onboarding right now. I am beginning to charge my mystical energy. I believe we will need it when we go into THE BOLE. 🍲
THE BOLE starts to cook. I am ID 0087 and onboarding right now. I am beginning to charge my mystical energy. I believe we will need it when we go into THE BOLE. 🍲
I won't tell you when I 'm lucky, but there will be signs 🍀
Btw, check out @dosir's frames for tipping (/rewardr) and HAMsters fun (/hamsters) 💪🏼🐹
Btw, check out @dosir's frames for tipping (/rewardr) and HAMsters fun (/hamsters) 💪🏼🐹
427349
Dosir Ⓡ 🍖🐹🥣
@dosir·19:30 08/03/2025
GM HAMsters
the tokombola round ended and we got the winner.
Congratulations to @cryptonjal who won the big jackpot of 4300 degen.
And you know what? he straightly donated 500 degen to the tokombola again. Thats the wei of giving back TY
Next round started. 475 degen in the jackpot. 0 participants
Much luck
the tokombola round ended and we got the winner.
Congratulations to @cryptonjal who won the big jackpot of 4300 degen.
And you know what? he straightly donated 500 degen to the tokombola again. Thats the wei of giving back TY
Next round started. 475 degen in the jackpot. 0 participants
Much luck
Central Banks balance sheet (US, YP, CN and EU) vs. M2 (log scale, in USD)... 🤯
First one is 20% down from his ATH, second one only 0.22% from a more recent ATH.
First one is 20% down from his ATH, second one only 0.22% from a more recent ATH.
Just send out my 'this week' appreciation to 35 casters 🪀
Approximately tipped 450k YOYO so far (56k this week), and 1.2M YOYO left (enough for 148 days).
After that, I probably have to switch to $USDC for a year (don't expect pennies, it's more symbolic than something to make you rich).
Approximately tipped 450k YOYO so far (56k this week), and 1.2M YOYO left (enough for 148 days).
After that, I probably have to switch to $USDC for a year (don't expect pennies, it's more symbolic than something to make you rich).
352276
Njal
@cryptonjal·06:31 08/02/2025
Revisited my tipping 🫳 🪀
✨ From now on, I will send out my $YOYO tips every week (Sat. or Sun.) to everyone on my list with /rewardr
✨ CA: 0xE31876C6A62A813f57b815d8d2d0F5c8Aa06f49B (Base layer)
✨ If you want to receive notifications, search for rewardr (by Dosir) by your frames otherwise enjoy in silence
✨ From now on, I will send out my $YOYO tips every week (Sat. or Sun.) to everyone on my list with /rewardr
✨ CA: 0xE31876C6A62A813f57b815d8d2d0F5c8Aa06f49B (Base layer)
✨ If you want to receive notifications, search for rewardr (by Dosir) by your frames otherwise enjoy in silence
Many questions and thoughts:
- Isn't it in MS's interest for multiple larger entities to buy BTC so that MicroStrategy's business model can survive?
- What happened to code is law?
- Bitcoin's anarchist and libertarian structure means that anyone can participate, even governments.
- it's never the user's fault that something doesn't work the way you want it to work, it's almost always the programmer's fault, and in this case it's the observer's fault 😉 (ok, unnecessarily hurtful to programmers)
- Isn't it in MS's interest for multiple larger entities to buy BTC so that MicroStrategy's business model can survive?
- What happened to code is law?
- Bitcoin's anarchist and libertarian structure means that anyone can participate, even governments.
- it's never the user's fault that something doesn't work the way you want it to work, it's almost always the programmer's fault, and in this case it's the observer's fault 😉 (ok, unnecessarily hurtful to programmers)
191648
thoughtcrimeboss
@thoughtcrimeboss·23:06 07/03/2025
I read on Nostr that Michael Saylor advised Trump that the United States should try to acquire between 5 and 25 percent of the total supply of Bitcoin through regular purchases. Michael Saylor doesn't understand BTC, the point is to escape the nation state's control of money, not strengthen it. No one entity should control that much bitcoin and certainly not any government!
I am in THE BOLE
Come join me fast. THE BOLE starts to cook fast.
Legends whisper of THE BOLE, an ancient, ever cooking entity hidden deep within the fabric of reality 🍲
Come join me fast. THE BOLE starts to cook fast.
Legends whisper of THE BOLE, an ancient, ever cooking entity hidden deep within the fabric of reality 🍲
GM☕🥐
- The Gas Fee Alchemist -
- The Gas Fee Alchemist -
Bull market vibes: getting payed as spam 💪🏼🐂🔥
234616
Pichi 🟪🍖🐹🎩 🍡🌸
@pichi·23:42 05/03/2025
Dear Spammers,
Please send me free money.
Thank you,
Pichi
Please send me free money.
Thank you,
Pichi
Wandering if there are casters from other EU countries than the Netherlands where they have a 'problem' with food or food prices, and where the 'solution' is an EU label with a QR code to see what is in the product?
Article in Dutch: https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/146994651/qr-code-op-etiket-aanpassen-europese-afspraken-of-andere-taal-op-labels-zo-wil-kamer-boodschappen-goedkoper-maken
Article in Dutch: https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/146994651/qr-code-op-etiket-aanpassen-europese-afspraken-of-andere-taal-op-labels-zo-wil-kamer-boodschappen-goedkoper-maken
:quality(80)/cdn-kiosk-api.telegraaf.nl/61ce5bac-fa04-11ef-9b76-964b422486a1.jpg)
How I imagine the EU will strengthen its military
(Vid in twee is fake/satire btw)
https://x.com/CarlDebane/status/1896975917869883879?t=-doMwdfG1M27JIYsq_lCKw&s=19
(Vid in twee is fake/satire btw)
https://x.com/CarlDebane/status/1896975917869883879?t=-doMwdfG1M27JIYsq_lCKw&s=19
In that matter, seasonality is in favour of ETH the coming months. Would be an interesting cocktail when also (SOL+ETH)/TOTAL2 bounce, and crypto in general will move up.
352276
Njal
@cryptonjal·08:11 05/03/2025
Still interesting to see that people expect an altseason like the cycle before. You can't expect that intuitional investors are going to fomo into shitcoins. BTC-price is mainly driven by intuitional investors nowadays. So, you have to look for alternatives like ETH and SOL cap compared to the total crypto cap ex BTC.
If you do that, you will understand why ETH is underperforming, and you will see that you're the exit liquidity if you're full in altcoins. Altseason is almost over.
If you do that, you will understand why ETH is underperforming, and you will see that you're the exit liquidity if you're full in altcoins. Altseason is almost over.
Still interesting to see that people expect an altseason like the cycle before. You can't expect that intuitional investors are going to fomo into shitcoins. BTC-price is mainly driven by intuitional investors nowadays. So, you have to look for alternatives like ETH and SOL cap compared to the total crypto cap ex BTC.
If you do that, you will understand why ETH is underperforming, and you will see that you're the exit liquidity if you're full in altcoins. Altseason is almost over.
If you do that, you will understand why ETH is underperforming, and you will see that you're the exit liquidity if you're full in altcoins. Altseason is almost over.
409573
FCP
@fuckcoolpussy.eth·06:05 05/03/2025
Gm
The geopolitical relationship between the US and the EU is slowly shifting. Also interesting there will be more room for debt for different EU countries, and a possibility to loan at The European Investment Bank (EIB) who will use private money for their loans.
https://x.com/vonderleyen/status/1896839432021463265?t=6k7GjzN9wibq8AboPHulcg&s=19
https://x.com/vonderleyen/status/1896839432021463265?t=6k7GjzN9wibq8AboPHulcg&s=19
