finance
/finance5074
Finance in all its forms ๐ท
Schiller has a slightly different take on how expensive public markets are right now.
TL;DR - itโs expensive, but not quite dotcom expensive
TL;DR - itโs expensive, but not quite dotcom expensive
Private marketsโ illiquidity premium has historically driven investor appetite, but with new, earlier liquidity routes than IPO and unprecedented competition for assets, I expect the return profile will shift significantly.
Question is, where will money flow next in search of higher returns?
Supporting data in article:
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/blackrock-hits-record-high-115-trillion-assets-market-rally-etf-boost-2024-10-11/
My bet: digital assets.
Question is, where will money flow next in search of higher returns?
Supporting data in article:
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/blackrock-hits-record-high-115-trillion-assets-market-rally-etf-boost-2024-10-11/
My bet: digital assets.
This IMF report on global public debt is a crypto rallying cry.
I donโt see how this debt trajectory changes.
Mainstream crypto adoption is inevitable.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2024/10/23/fiscal-monitor-october-2024
I donโt see how this debt trajectory changes.
Mainstream crypto adoption is inevitable.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2024/10/23/fiscal-monitor-october-2024
I'm currently frustrated with the global monetary system.
If you want to convert someone to crypto, just have them try to pay someone internationally, from the United States. Then do it via Coinbase.
Let them see the difference.
It's a no-brainer.
If you want to convert someone to crypto, just have them try to pay someone internationally, from the United States. Then do it via Coinbase.
Let them see the difference.
It's a no-brainer.
PSA: if I donโt know you and you want to be a member of a channel I help mod, please share an answer to the below when you DC.
Letโs hold ourselves to a high standard and PoW; this isnโt CT.
๐ซก
Letโs hold ourselves to a high standard and PoW; this isnโt CT.
๐ซก
reality is adding crypto to a traditional portfolio has led to materially higher returns, and itโs done so on a risk adjusted basis
hard to fathom any โprofessionalโ taking an active stance against it at this point tbh
hard to fathom any โprofessionalโ taking an active stance against it at this point tbh
Even if there is a recession, it seems like a good time to get into crypto/bitcoin given that global M2 is going up and rates started to go down. We will see how it turns out but will keep watching!
Indiaโs gold imports rose to $10.06 billion in August, a new all-time high.
This is the equivalent of 131 tonnes of gold, the 6th-highest monthly volume on record! ๐๐๐
This is the equivalent of 131 tonnes of gold, the 6th-highest monthly volume on record! ๐๐๐
The market is now pricing in a 50% chance of a US recession by June 2025.
The percentage has more than doubled over the last month and is up from just 10% in July
The percentage has more than doubled over the last month and is up from just 10% in July
Seems like the economy and the stock market might see a correction after elections. The storm is brewing. The economy is slowing down and even with rate cuts, it takes time for it to have an effect on the economy.
These cuts seem like a short boost into the stock market and may affect elections.
We will keep seeing companies missing earnings and maybe something breaksโฆ. We will keep watching!
These cuts seem like a short boost into the stock market and may affect elections.
We will keep seeing companies missing earnings and maybe something breaksโฆ. We will keep watching!
The most absurd number in the government reported CPI?
According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 31% over the last 2 years and 10% over the last 5 years.
When in reality, the average US family health insurance premium:
1999: $6k
2002: $8k
2005: $11k
2008: $13k
2011: $15k
2014: $17k
2017: $19k
2020: $21k
2023: $24k
According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 31% over the last 2 years and 10% over the last 5 years.
When in reality, the average US family health insurance premium:
1999: $6k
2002: $8k
2005: $11k
2008: $13k
2011: $15k
2014: $17k
2017: $19k
2020: $21k
2023: $24k
Supercore CPI rises 0.33%, biggest monthly increase since April. That caused the market to reduce the probability of 50bps rate cut odds down to 20%
Peter Schiff has some kooky views on crypto. Not surprising since it's hard to get someone to understand something if his salary depends on him not understanding it
But his takes on the fiscal situation are worth considering. Here's what he thinks about abolishing the Federal Reserve
But his takes on the fiscal situation are worth considering. Here's what he thinks about abolishing the Federal Reserve
Dollar General shares drop 26%, marking the steepest intraday decline in its history. The CEO says core customers are "financially constrained"
IMO everything will go down in Bitcoin. But given that debt is likely to increase, it is unlikely that real asset prices will go down in dollar terms
Today JPow confirmed the FED cut in September. This comes with inflation at 2.9%. Obviously thatโs bullish for assets but the job market will not get better anytime soon
Can we get back to hard money like before 1914? I would love to see housing prices affordable again!
As Iโve mentioned many times before, the federal government has been misleading releasing numbers that are not accurate
Auto insurance rates in the US have increased by 50% over the past 3 years. That's the biggest 3-year spike since 1975-78.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathawayโs cash position relative to total assets spiked to 25.0% in Q2 2024, the most in at least 24 years.
The company's share of cash has more than DOUBLED in just 2 years!
The company's share of cash has more than DOUBLED in just 2 years!
Inflation comes in at 2.9%. Below the expected 3% mark
Prices of things we have to buy continue to surge, while prices of things we want are freefalling (weak demand)
Prices of things we have to buy continue to surge, while prices of things we want are freefalling (weak demand)
The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 8.1% in July, the highest in 11 years.
The number of US bankruptcies currently under Chapter 11 jumps to 2,462, the highest count in 13 years.
This was the BOJ hike that later on was brought back. You can't taper a ponzi. This is the consequence of the fiat system! Expect more turbulence ahead!
If you believe that this is a recession, which all indicators point to this direction, then todayโs market drawdown is just the start of a bear market
