240932
Monteluna
@monteluna #240932
Defi. Ethereum. Physics.
836 Follower 450 Following
Love me some defi dad and some good bear posting.
6670
DeFi Dad
@defidad.eth·2 hours ago
Despite Ethereum's lead as the largest, most secure L1 on earth for DeFi, stablecoins, and institutional adoption onchain, ETH is still undervalued. But why?
In a new Edge Podcast, @dannyryan and @vivekventures of @etherealizeio have answers!
https://pods.media/edge/ethereum-is-winningso-why-is-eth-still-undervalued
In a new Edge Podcast, @dannyryan and @vivekventures of @etherealizeio have answers!
https://pods.media/edge/ethereum-is-winningso-why-is-eth-still-undervalued
I'm not worried about "crypto" but the entire economy.
We really are in economic disaster territory imho. Don't worry about your bags, buy a shotgun.
We really are in economic disaster territory imho. Don't worry about your bags, buy a shotgun.
848739
maxAPY - DeFi on autopilot
@maxapy·20 hours ago
it does feel like 2009 recession is coming, and it is scary we've never experienced crypto during a time like that😬
Huge
3
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth·14 hours ago
Big win for stablecoins today
A reminder that Sherrod Brown (voted out) and Elizabeth Warren were the reason a bipartisan bill from the House last year never had a chance to see the Senate floor.
Here's a rough overview of the bill:
- Federal oversight in most cases
- Increased transparency requirements and public disclosures, i.e. are stablecoins backed with real assets
- Some compliance stuff
Ultimately, will be a boon for fintech / tradfi adoption. Which will normalize using public blockchains for more practical stuff.
I would expect in the medium term this benefits decentralized stablecoins like DAI.
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/03/11/latest-draft-of-u-s-stablecoin-bill-aims-to-split-power-between-state-and-federal-authorities
A reminder that Sherrod Brown (voted out) and Elizabeth Warren were the reason a bipartisan bill from the House last year never had a chance to see the Senate floor.
Here's a rough overview of the bill:
- Federal oversight in most cases
- Increased transparency requirements and public disclosures, i.e. are stablecoins backed with real assets
- Some compliance stuff
Ultimately, will be a boon for fintech / tradfi adoption. Which will normalize using public blockchains for more practical stuff.
I would expect in the medium term this benefits decentralized stablecoins like DAI.
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/03/11/latest-draft-of-u-s-stablecoin-bill-aims-to-split-power-between-state-and-federal-authorities
Makes sense.
"We have evidence that perception of disorder drives perception of crime (after all, the former is much more common than the latter). What if violent, serious crime really is coming down, but disorder is rising — and causing people to continue to feel unsafe?
(...)
Indeed, unless we start taking disorder seriously, we risk real and lasting social consequences."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/it-s-time-to-talk-about-america-s-disorder-problem
(...)
Indeed, unless we start taking disorder seriously, we risk real and lasting social consequences."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/it-s-time-to-talk-about-america-s-disorder-problem
For people around 2018 crash and the covid crash, this absolutely feels slow, but not bad. My only worry is this is starting to feel like 2008 in the real economy, and I'm not sure crypto fares well in that environment.
Stablecoins The Game.
Who's building this?
Who's building this?
There is only one single place in America I can find that's a small restaurant in Miami, where I can get a paella even remotely close to the flavor of a classic Spanish paella.
I'm saddened but also I'm a guaranteed repeat customer.
I'm saddened but also I'm a guaranteed repeat customer.
Nicotine by tobacco is the key to elite programming and mathematics.
I will not elaborate.
I will not elaborate.
2134
Kazi
@kazi·3 days ago
slav devs are blessed by god. they will say 1 week turn around time and spend 3 days smoking cigarettes, 3 days taking walks in balkan mountains and 1 day to solve the problem. every other dev can't do the same for some reason. i don't get it. *tabbing intensifies*
Slight rant and totally heuristic:
I've read and listened to some of Graeber on debt, Merhling on the modern monetary system today, and some of the newer kids like Saefadeen and Lyn Alden with bitcoin and hard money.
The only real conclusions I can come up with is humanity is predisposed to take risks. These risks have future payouts in quality of life, and losses. As a society, we have developed credit money to help take those risks without suffering huge losses. I actually truly believe credit money is necessary for a functioning society, since in almost every civilization even going back to the Sumerians utilized credit expansion to take on new projects, rather than collateralizing with existing wealth.
Even when they say they will collateralize with existing wealth on paper (businesses, slaves, land, gold), there is usually a sovereign debt crisis and the debt is completely erased. It almost never actually transfers to debtors, and even in religions, they effectively ban interest for this reason.
I've read and listened to some of Graeber on debt, Merhling on the modern monetary system today, and some of the newer kids like Saefadeen and Lyn Alden with bitcoin and hard money.
The only real conclusions I can come up with is humanity is predisposed to take risks. These risks have future payouts in quality of life, and losses. As a society, we have developed credit money to help take those risks without suffering huge losses. I actually truly believe credit money is necessary for a functioning society, since in almost every civilization even going back to the Sumerians utilized credit expansion to take on new projects, rather than collateralizing with existing wealth.
Even when they say they will collateralize with existing wealth on paper (businesses, slaves, land, gold), there is usually a sovereign debt crisis and the debt is completely erased. It almost never actually transfers to debtors, and even in religions, they effectively ban interest for this reason.
18229
Nico
@nicom·4 days ago
You’d think people would turn to crypto as a safe haven when the world is in turmoil—but they don’t. That shows how far we still are from true understanding and adoption.
The real shift will come when crypto and the stock market move in opposite directions.
The real shift will come when crypto and the stock market move in opposite directions.
I went to do my undergrad 17 years ago.
They didn't read the textbook back then 😭
They didn't read the textbook back then 😭
4407
keccers
@keccers.eth·4 days ago
Per Derek Thompson’s recent podcast, incoming Columbia freshmen (not exactly a right wing hotbed) are also incapable of reading full books as part of coursework. Not sure we can blame illiteracy as that “problem” if it is a problem is universal
https://open.spotify.com/episode/0tFL5KgZnAoUJjRSl6NGNR?si=CJXawU0aSvePV0RxILtI_Q
https://open.spotify.com/episode/0tFL5KgZnAoUJjRSl6NGNR?si=CJXawU0aSvePV0RxILtI_Q
I hope ETH retests $1K, BTC goes back to $30K, and SOL goes to the sunken place of $50.
1018294
mvv
@mvv·5 days ago
This week will be very important to watch because $ETH, $SOL, $BTC, and most other altcoins are at a make-or-break point.
I actually used to think Iggy Azalea and the $MOTHER project was a genuine good faith attempt at an artist monetizing their brand, but if you haven't looked at it recently, it's just completely pivoted to tokenized soft porn.
I honestly think one of the best things that has happened this cycle is all of the useless dogshit has moved to Solana, and while people complain about DeFi and how difficult it is, Ethereum is standing strong as an actual chain for financiers who want liquidity, derivatives, and yield.
I said before you have to look at blockspace like real estate. The cheapest rent neighborhood in your local city is riddled with crime, illicit sex, drugs, and liquor stores. Trying to be the *cheapest* and *easiest* option removes a necessary quality barrier.
Smarter people with something to lose almost always want to at most drive through that neighborhood, but they'll *never* want to live there.
https://x.com/IGGYAZALEA/status/1898743685379977302
I honestly think one of the best things that has happened this cycle is all of the useless dogshit has moved to Solana, and while people complain about DeFi and how difficult it is, Ethereum is standing strong as an actual chain for financiers who want liquidity, derivatives, and yield.
I said before you have to look at blockspace like real estate. The cheapest rent neighborhood in your local city is riddled with crime, illicit sex, drugs, and liquor stores. Trying to be the *cheapest* and *easiest* option removes a necessary quality barrier.
Smarter people with something to lose almost always want to at most drive through that neighborhood, but they'll *never* want to live there.
https://x.com/IGGYAZALEA/status/1898743685379977302
On God, some of you need to print this out and hang it on your wall.
4909
Zeneca
@zen·6 days ago
I round tripped 8 figures last cycle. A few things I learned:
- It’s almost always better to sell too early and miss out on gains, then to hold too long and round trip the bag. This is because eventually, almost everything trends to zero, so even your “early sell” is likely going to make you look like a genius in a few months/years
- If you ever take a PnL screenshot of how much you’re up, sell. You don’t have to sell your entire position, but it’s usually an excellent time to at least trim 20-50% of it.
- Most people on this app have absolutely no idea what they’re talking about. Often the loudest and most confident voices know the least, while the quiet and self questioning ones are full of wisdom.
- You can’t borrow conviction. If you buy something because someone else did or told you it was “a hidden gem”, you’re almost guaranteed to fumble the bag. They’ll dump on your head while you’re still anxiously waiting for their next tweet or YouTube video to tell you what to do.
- It’s almost always better to sell too early and miss out on gains, then to hold too long and round trip the bag. This is because eventually, almost everything trends to zero, so even your “early sell” is likely going to make you look like a genius in a few months/years
- If you ever take a PnL screenshot of how much you’re up, sell. You don’t have to sell your entire position, but it’s usually an excellent time to at least trim 20-50% of it.
- Most people on this app have absolutely no idea what they’re talking about. Often the loudest and most confident voices know the least, while the quiet and self questioning ones are full of wisdom.
- You can’t borrow conviction. If you buy something because someone else did or told you it was “a hidden gem”, you’re almost guaranteed to fumble the bag. They’ll dump on your head while you’re still anxiously waiting for their next tweet or YouTube video to tell you what to do.
I would pay serious money for this with a Linux operating system.
472
Chris Carella
@ccarella.eth·16:09 08/03/2025
iRiver D5 (electric dictionary), 2007.
↓↓↓
4013
luc
@luc·16:29 08/03/2025
Weekend read from Arthur Hayes.
Interesting points around how to read the Trump erratic moves and how it impacts Bitcoin (and thus crypto at large)
The salient points are his assumptions that:
1) Trump is a real-estate guy, and thus likely to resort to debt financing
2) to make it possible he needs to a) reduce current debt level (secured with his appointment of Bessent at the treasury) and b) get Powell to cut rates
3) he thinks DOGE is trumps way to induce a recession or the fear of one to induce rate cuts
4) his back of the envelope maths expects money printing at 70-80% of COVID's level
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/kiss-of-death-916ae30fedc5
Interesting points around how to read the Trump erratic moves and how it impacts Bitcoin (and thus crypto at large)
The salient points are his assumptions that:
1) Trump is a real-estate guy, and thus likely to resort to debt financing
2) to make it possible he needs to a) reduce current debt level (secured with his appointment of Bessent at the treasury) and b) get Powell to cut rates
3) he thinks DOGE is trumps way to induce a recession or the fear of one to induce rate cuts
4) his back of the envelope maths expects money printing at 70-80% of COVID's level
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/kiss-of-death-916ae30fedc5
My roasting of Ethereum will continue until morale worsens.
330172
BroekaselaluJp
@broekaselalujp·07:22 07/03/2025
Good afternoon
Believer that you must lose every single dollar at least once in a cycle to learn to take profits. Mine was the 2018 crash where every scam Ethereum killer I bought went to zero.
Some of you might need multiple cycles based on evidence.
Some of you might need multiple cycles based on evidence.
862100
anon
@superanon·21:11 06/03/2025
The only thing you did not do right this cycle is not taking profits.
Lesson in there.
Lesson in there.
WrappedJPM
244869
Leon Waidmann | Onchain Insights
@leon-waidmann·13:23 06/03/2025
Over $1 billion flowed into stablecoins in just the last 7 days (+0.46%)!
Crypto bro name a different watch besides Rolex challenge
(impossible)
https://x.com/blknoiz06/status/1897037369146290206
(impossible)
https://x.com/blknoiz06/status/1897037369146290206
As soon as Berachain launched, the bear market started.
Coincidence? I don't think so.
Coincidence? I don't think so.
7535
Laura Shin
@laurashin·22:52 04/03/2025
🔥 Berachain did things differently. It achieved great growth, but not everyone is happy post TGE.
On Unchained, Smokey the Bera delves into:
🐻 How proof of liquidity actually works
🔹 Why they chose the EVM
💰 Why they sold so much to VCs (and what they’re doing about it)
⚡ What’s next for the ecosystem
https://unchainedcrypto.com/podcast/how-berachain-became-one-of-the-most-popular-blockchains/
On Unchained, Smokey the Bera delves into:
🐻 How proof of liquidity actually works
🔹 Why they chose the EVM
💰 Why they sold so much to VCs (and what they’re doing about it)
⚡ What’s next for the ecosystem
https://unchainedcrypto.com/podcast/how-berachain-became-one-of-the-most-popular-blockchains/
Everyone hates the good typescript folks until there's a trillion dollar form validation error. 😅
Why is Miami gegenpresssing?
They are up 3-0. 😂
They are up 3-0. 😂
Inter Miami looking strong without Messi.
I still think he won't play more than 15 MLS games. They have 17 games and I think they will limit him to only home games.
Sucks but he's at that age.
I still think he won't play more than 15 MLS games. They have 17 games and I think they will limit him to only home games.
Sucks but he's at that age.
FatManTerra suggesting what I don't think anyone wants to say out loud because it's good for our bags.
https://x.com/FatManTerra/status/1896226504876671273
https://x.com/FatManTerra/status/1896226504876671273
NFA but...
If you want exposure to the upside in the ecosystem of ETH, I have 2 thoughts:
1. Buy Coinbase stock. They already have an L2 and are leading in capturing value on the chain.
2. Buy Meta stock. A classic thing in business is a leading company throws a billion to take market share. Zuck can't be this stupid to not be working on an L2 at this point. He can be the Standard Oil of Ethereum and just eat all the competition if he wants to. He wakes up and snaps a finger to launch the Whatsapp/Instagram L2 chain with deep integrations, and no one will ever use Venmo or any bank ever again. ZuckBucks for everyone.
I seriously predict the Ethereum story in the next 5 years will be Meta vs. the field (Base, Op, whever else). These two companies can totally afford to make their rollups completely free as well as they compete for liquidity and market share. ETH will be $0, but everyone will use it.
https://x.com/wagmiAlexander/status/1895956640127647901
If you want exposure to the upside in the ecosystem of ETH, I have 2 thoughts:
1. Buy Coinbase stock. They already have an L2 and are leading in capturing value on the chain.
2. Buy Meta stock. A classic thing in business is a leading company throws a billion to take market share. Zuck can't be this stupid to not be working on an L2 at this point. He can be the Standard Oil of Ethereum and just eat all the competition if he wants to. He wakes up and snaps a finger to launch the Whatsapp/Instagram L2 chain with deep integrations, and no one will ever use Venmo or any bank ever again. ZuckBucks for everyone.
I seriously predict the Ethereum story in the next 5 years will be Meta vs. the field (Base, Op, whever else). These two companies can totally afford to make their rollups completely free as well as they compete for liquidity and market share. ETH will be $0, but everyone will use it.
https://x.com/wagmiAlexander/status/1895956640127647901
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x.com
Everyone should own 0.1 ETH.
And that's it because its destined to be down only, and you only need that much for gas the rest of your life.
And that's it because its destined to be down only, and you only need that much for gas the rest of your life.
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The reason why AMM LPing is great is it *forces* you to hold cash.
Professional traders who survive multiple cycles do two things extremely well:
1. They buy when there's a crash.
2. They sell when things are going up.
This sounds easy, but many people simply do not have the conviction to sell 40% of their stack into cash and sit on their hands.
The smart traders do.
Professional traders who survive multiple cycles do two things extremely well:
1. They buy when there's a crash.
2. They sell when things are going up.
This sounds easy, but many people simply do not have the conviction to sell 40% of their stack into cash and sit on their hands.
The smart traders do.
"I work in alternative finance".
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There are a ton of "foundations" from the ICO boom that are effectively trust funds for the founders.
They don't do anything, they don't really have any products. Status is for example one of them where original ICO participants have no recourse due to the structure of the foundation to just give us back our money.
I want a 1980s style corporate raiders to go after these shadow funds, and would love if the lawyers got involved. Maybe there should even be a DAO where people raise funds to hire lawyers to go after them.
https://x.com/eshita/status/1895173940718510536
They don't do anything, they don't really have any products. Status is for example one of them where original ICO participants have no recourse due to the structure of the foundation to just give us back our money.
I want a 1980s style corporate raiders to go after these shadow funds, and would love if the lawyers got involved. Maybe there should even be a DAO where people raise funds to hire lawyers to go after them.
https://x.com/eshita/status/1895173940718510536
Kain spelling out exactly what I've been saying for a long time:
There's absolutely no reason to hold ETH.
You can hold any other yield bearing asset on Ethereum, and make a case for it, but you cannot make any case ever for holding pure ETH.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/speculation-that-unites-us-and-divides-us-in-crypto/id1671489227?i=1000694167957
There's absolutely no reason to hold ETH.
You can hold any other yield bearing asset on Ethereum, and make a case for it, but you cannot make any case ever for holding pure ETH.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/speculation-that-unites-us-and-divides-us-in-crypto/id1671489227?i=1000694167957
If some of you used manual yield tools instead of trying to trade, you would probably not be losing money.
Some ideas:
- MaxAPY
- @velodrome x Mellow managed CL pools
- Yearn still works but I guess some of you zoomers don't even know what Yearn is.
Some ideas:
- MaxAPY
- @velodrome x Mellow managed CL pools
- Yearn still works but I guess some of you zoomers don't even know what Yearn is.
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Unrequested advice:
I have been using Operator to use Dune and collect data across various dashboards. One of the annoying things has been certain dashboards do not have public query information.
Its been a little bit if a headache but once you get the prompt right, it works great. I've also used it for various data collection tasks across Dune, DefiLlama, coingecko, etc.
Its way faster to generate a "browser macro" to pull some of these tasks and argue with prompts once, because once its done, its completely reusable. I definitely think every analyst should get the ChatGPT pro at least right now because its just a force multiplier for a relatively low cost.
I have been using Operator to use Dune and collect data across various dashboards. One of the annoying things has been certain dashboards do not have public query information.
Its been a little bit if a headache but once you get the prompt right, it works great. I've also used it for various data collection tasks across Dune, DefiLlama, coingecko, etc.
Its way faster to generate a "browser macro" to pull some of these tasks and argue with prompts once, because once its done, its completely reusable. I definitely think every analyst should get the ChatGPT pro at least right now because its just a force multiplier for a relatively low cost.
"After the past four years pouring money into a European war, and protecting European borders while European regulators robbed our companies blind, what exactly is the relationship we’re meant to be preserving?
What, dare I ask in 2025, are we getting out of this “relationship”?"
https://www.piratewires.com/p/sucks-to-eu
What, dare I ask in 2025, are we getting out of this “relationship”?"
https://www.piratewires.com/p/sucks-to-eu
If you treat the entire crypto market as one balance sheet, it's kind of bizarre when any particular news event calls certain news "bearish" with a small dip.
The reason is most of the liquidations convert to stablecoins, so value is being transfered from leverage traders to leverage suppliers. This is just a risk swap, but the overall balance sheet of crypto means the stablecoins have just changed hands. They weren't created or destroyed. The overall balance sheet does not expand or contract in these deleveraging events, so the overall crypto economy is stable.
As long as stablecoin TVL keeps going up, this means were just *expanding* activity. The price can go down 50%, but as long as its just a value swap between people onchain, its actually not bearish at all.
This is why I'm more interested in stablecoin metrics for protocols. Price is a meme, but expanding the balance sheet is a direct measurement of onchain activity.
The reason is most of the liquidations convert to stablecoins, so value is being transfered from leverage traders to leverage suppliers. This is just a risk swap, but the overall balance sheet of crypto means the stablecoins have just changed hands. They weren't created or destroyed. The overall balance sheet does not expand or contract in these deleveraging events, so the overall crypto economy is stable.
As long as stablecoin TVL keeps going up, this means were just *expanding* activity. The price can go down 50%, but as long as its just a value swap between people onchain, its actually not bearish at all.
This is why I'm more interested in stablecoin metrics for protocols. Price is a meme, but expanding the balance sheet is a direct measurement of onchain activity.
"With its TVL surging past $3.26 billion, the network has surpassed popular networks, including Arbitrum, which has a TVL of $2.9 billion, and Base, with $3.24 billion. The blockchain now holds 2.98% of the value locked in the entire DeFi space and has the sixth-largest TVL."
https://cointelegraph.com/news/berachain-defi-tvl-3-billion-passes-base-arbitrum
https://cointelegraph.com/news/berachain-defi-tvl-3-billion-passes-base-arbitrum
I am keeping an eye on data, and the numbers have a big theme:
Most protocol TVLs on it are more than the market cap of the protocols themselves.
This is a complete mispricing since you can assume a CAPM, and roughly guess the token holders capture fee streams.
Many of these protocols are also emitting tokens and there aren't any sellers... at all. The market caps are only *slowly* expanding, while TVL keeps growing.
Most protocol TVLs on it are more than the market cap of the protocols themselves.
This is a complete mispricing since you can assume a CAPM, and roughly guess the token holders capture fee streams.
Many of these protocols are also emitting tokens and there aren't any sellers... at all. The market caps are only *slowly* expanding, while TVL keeps growing.
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Everyone is planning for Denver and submitting to FOMO.
Meanwhile ETHCC released tickets almost a month ago and no one is thinking ahead for that at all.
Meanwhile ETHCC released tickets almost a month ago and no one is thinking ahead for that at all.
A great statistical discussion on pro golfers distributions of scores, rather than discussing mean scores.
https://golf.com/instruction/what-consistent-golfer-looks-like-shaving-strokes/
https://golf.com/instruction/what-consistent-golfer-looks-like-shaving-strokes/
A business model that I believe no one is talking about:
Eliminating subscription based models for a yield swap model.
Instead of a business taking $100 a year for their product or service, I actually think there is a market for you locking $1000 USDC, where on the back end they deposit into a Yearn or other yield aggregator, and they fund themselves from yield. At the end of the subscription, you get your $1000 back.
I could see this with AI subscription business that already have a large premium, but do have a target market that could seriously lock that much capital, especially if they get their money back.
Eliminating subscription based models for a yield swap model.
Instead of a business taking $100 a year for their product or service, I actually think there is a market for you locking $1000 USDC, where on the back end they deposit into a Yearn or other yield aggregator, and they fund themselves from yield. At the end of the subscription, you get your $1000 back.
I could see this with AI subscription business that already have a large premium, but do have a target market that could seriously lock that much capital, especially if they get their money back.
Tradfi is talking about raising more money for the best and brightest to work on the latest in...
- Glorified wire transfer wrappers
- Credit card points to resell your spending data on the black market
- Venmo but for a small third world country with less transaction volume than McDonald's in any G7 country
This might be one of the most obvious soon to be disruptions in history as we can see defi grow every day getting deeper integrations into social and AI.
https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/18/fintech-fundraising-is-giving-me-2021-flashbacks/
- Glorified wire transfer wrappers
- Credit card points to resell your spending data on the black market
- Venmo but for a small third world country with less transaction volume than McDonald's in any G7 country
This might be one of the most obvious soon to be disruptions in history as we can see defi grow every day getting deeper integrations into social and AI.
https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/18/fintech-fundraising-is-giving-me-2021-flashbacks/
I am once again asking you to stop recording yourself committing crimes.
https://x.com/tier10k/status/1891943785468141598
https://x.com/tier10k/status/1891943785468141598
If you aren't sitting in a full range LP, have moved to virtual portfolio holding options, or at least haven't sold half your coins by now and are sitting 50% cash...
This is your first cycle and you clearly have no idea how to spot top signals.
This is your first cycle and you clearly have no idea how to spot top signals.
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"(T)here’s nothing stopping us from building a new Hong Kong, Dubai, or Singapore there, just a couple hundred miles off the coast of Miami. It could be an international capital of trade, finance, and tourism — a bright city on the bay. And in the process, we could show the Cuban population what capitalism can achieve."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/let-s-turn-guantanamo-into-the-new-hong-kong
https://www.piratewires.com/p/let-s-turn-guantanamo-into-the-new-hong-kong
